Ruben Rocha Moya’s temporary leave of absence, approved by the Sinaloa state congress shortly after his late-April U.S. indictment on drug-trafficking charges, remains the dominant factor shaping trader views. Rocha, a Morena-aligned governor since 2021, stepped aside on May 2 to defend himself while explicitly framing the move as non-permanent and vowing to clear his name through Mexican institutions. An interim governor was installed, yet Rocha retains legal standing to resume office once investigations conclude. With only two weeks left before the May 31 cutoff and no subsequent formal resignation, resignation pressure, or removal proceedings reported, market pricing reflects the view that Rocha is unlikely to be permanently out of the governorship by the deadline.