California Proposition 43 would standardize a two-thirds voter approval requirement for all local special tax measures, including citizen initiatives, while restricting certain property tax initiatives. Recent PPIC polling shows only 39 percent support among likely voters, with sharp partisan splits as Democrats prioritize local revenue for services like education and transit while Republicans back taxpayer protections. The measure emerged from a late legislative compromise after an anti-tax group withdrew a broader initiative, drawing opposition from figures like Assemblymember Buffy Wicks and groups focused on public funding. With the November 3, 2026, vote approaching and California’s Democratic-leaning electorate, traders assign a 65.5 percent probability against passage, consistent with historical patterns on tax-related ballot measures.