Rafael López Aliaga holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026, Lima mayoral election because his Renovación Popular list is positioned to deliver him the post indirectly. After resigning his Senate seat and navigating repeated challenges to his regidor candidacy, the JNE confirmed his eligibility in early September, clearing the path for him to assume the mayoralty if the list prevails. Recent polling from IEP, CIT, and CPI in the first half of September placed his support in the 20–33% range, well ahead of Carlos Bruce, Francis Allison, Daniel Urresti, and the remaining field of more than twenty candidates. Legal scrutiny of campaign materials and the crowded, fragmented ballot have not altered the underlying advantage, leaving other named contenders at single-digit or lower implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRafael López Aliaga 75.4%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 21.2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli 3.1%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 2.7%
$152,176 Vol.
$152,176 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
75%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
21%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
3%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
3%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 75.4%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 21.2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli 3.1%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 2.7%
$152,176 Vol.
$152,176 Vol.
Rafael López Aliaga
75%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
21%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
3%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
3%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Rafael López Aliaga holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the October 4, 2026, Lima mayoral election because his Renovación Popular list is positioned to deliver him the post indirectly. After resigning his Senate seat and navigating repeated challenges to his regidor candidacy, the JNE confirmed his eligibility in early September, clearing the path for him to assume the mayoralty if the list prevails. Recent polling from IEP, CIT, and CPI in the first half of September placed his support in the 20–33% range, well ahead of Carlos Bruce, Francis Allison, Daniel Urresti, and the remaining field of more than twenty candidates. Legal scrutiny of campaign materials and the crowded, fragmented ballot have not altered the underlying advantage, leaving other named contenders at single-digit or lower implied probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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