The narrow 0.9-point margin between Renovación Popular’s list (27.7%) and Avanza País’s Francis Allison (26.8%) in the October 4, 2026, vote created initial uncertainty, but Peru’s constitutional ban on immediate mayoral re-election has become the dominant factor. Rafael López Aliaga, who resigned the post in 2025 and ran only as first regidor after his party’s mayoral nominee withdrew, cannot be proclaimed mayor. The Jurado Nacional de Elecciones has ruled against such maneuvers, directing credentials instead to the next eligible candidate on the winning list. This legal barrier, combined with pending proclamations and the market’s resolution rules favoring official JNE/ONPE outcomes, keeps implied probabilities low across named contenders and elevates “Other” as traders await final institutional confirmation.