Imelda Castro Castro holds an 82.5% implied probability in the Sinaloa gubernatorial market due to her August 2026 designation as Morena’s state coordinator for the Defense of the Transformation and National Sovereignty, a role that typically secures the party’s nomination ahead of the June 2027 election. She registered in the internal process in June 2026, led early preference surveys within the coalition, and benefits from national party backing while maintaining distance from the outgoing Rubén Rocha Moya administration. A late-September 2026 state electoral tribunal ruling confirmed an infraction for personalized promotion but found no anticipatory campaigning or misuse of public resources. Other listed aspirants, including María Teresa Guerra Ochoa and opposition figures such as Mario Zamora Gastélum, register far lower odds amid Morena’s structural dominance in the state.