**Traders assign an 84.5% probability to "No" because Turkish officials have discussed drafting a new constitution and related amendments but have not announced any referendum for 2026.** Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş stated in June that a new charter could emerge in 2026–2027, while AKP circles have circulated internal proposals in August to adjust presidential powers and expand parliamentary oversight. Presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum clarified in late August that the preferred approach requires a popular referendum even if parliament passes changes with 400+ votes, yet he projected completion during the next (29th) legislative period rather than the current 28th. Recent passage of the broad PKK-related “national solidarity” law with 468 votes has strengthened coalition-building potential, but this has not produced a formal referendum call or timeline within 2026. Structural hurdles—securing at least 360 votes to trigger a vote and navigating opposition resistance—further reduce the likelihood of an announcement before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado17% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
17% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 84.5% probability to "No" because Turkish officials have discussed drafting a new constitution and related amendments but have not announced any referendum for 2026.**
Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş stated in June that a new charter could emerge in 2026–2027, while AKP circles have circulated internal proposals in August to adjust presidential powers and expand parliamentary oversight. Presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum clarified in late August that the preferred approach requires a popular referendum even if parliament passes changes with 400+ votes, yet he projected completion during the next (29th) legislative period rather than the current 28th.
Recent passage of the broad PKK-related “national solidarity” law with 468 votes has strengthened coalition-building potential, but this has not produced a formal referendum call or timeline within 2026. Structural hurdles—securing at least 360 votes to trigger a vote and navigating opposition resistance—further reduce the likelihood of an announcement before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volumen
$6,794Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign an 84.5% probability to "No" because Turkish officials have discussed drafting a new constitution and related amendments but have not announced any referendum for 2026.**
Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş stated in June that a new charter could emerge in 2026–2027, while AKP circles have circulated internal proposals in August to adjust presidential powers and expand parliamentary oversight. Presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum clarified in late August that the preferred approach requires a popular referendum even if parliament passes changes with 400+ votes, yet he projected completion during the next (29th) legislative period rather than the current 28th.
Recent passage of the broad PKK-related “national solidarity” law with 468 votes has strengthened coalition-building potential, but this has not produced a formal referendum call or timeline within 2026. Structural hurdles—securing at least 360 votes to trigger a vote and navigating opposition resistance—further reduce the likelihood of an announcement before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$6,794Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 84.5% probability to "No" because Turkish officials have discussed drafting a new constitution and related amendments but have not announced any referendum for 2026.** Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş stated in June that a new charter could emerge in 2026–2027, while AKP circles have circulated internal proposals in August to adjust presidential powers and expand parliamentary oversight. Presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum clarified in late August that the preferred approach requires a popular referendum even if parliament passes changes with 400+ votes, yet he projected completion during the next (29th) legislative period rather than the current 28th. Recent passage of the broad PKK-related “national solidarity” law with 468 votes has strengthened coalition-building potential, but this has not produced a formal referendum call or timeline within 2026. Structural hurdles—securing at least 360 votes to trigger a vote and navigating opposition resistance—further reduce the likelihood of an announcement before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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