US Treasury debt management relies on routine congressional action to raise or suspend the debt limit, a process historically resolved through bipartisan negotiations even amid divided government. With multiple fiscal deadlines expected before 2027, traders price near-certain avoidance based on institutional incentives, the economic costs of default, and precedents like the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act. Primary drivers include sustained US borrowing capacity, Federal Reserve flexibility, and political pressure to prevent market disruption. Scenarios that could still shift odds include extended congressional gridlock blocking a clean increase, an unprecedented fiscal crisis, or sudden legal challenges to Treasury extraordinary measures, though such outcomes remain low-probability given repeated past resolutions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?
¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?
Sí
3% probabilidad
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.US Treasury debt management relies on routine congressional action to raise or suspend the debt limit, a process historically resolved through bipartisan negotiations even amid divided government. With multiple fiscal deadlines expected before 2027, traders price near-certain avoidance based on institutional incentives, the economic costs of default, and precedents like the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act. Primary drivers include sustained US borrowing capacity, Federal Reserve flexibility, and political pressure to prevent market disruption. Scenarios that could still shift odds include extended congressional gridlock blocking a clean increase, an unprecedented fiscal crisis, or sudden legal challenges to Treasury extraordinary measures, though such outcomes remain low-probability given repeated past resolutions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volumen
$18,051Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.US Treasury debt management relies on routine congressional action to raise or suspend the debt limit, a process historically resolved through bipartisan negotiations even amid divided government. With multiple fiscal deadlines expected before 2027, traders price near-certain avoidance based on institutional incentives, the economic costs of default, and precedents like the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act. Primary drivers include sustained US borrowing capacity, Federal Reserve flexibility, and political pressure to prevent market disruption. Scenarios that could still shift odds include extended congressional gridlock blocking a clean increase, an unprecedented fiscal crisis, or sudden legal challenges to Treasury extraordinary measures, though such outcomes remain low-probability given repeated past resolutions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volumen
$18,051Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US Treasury debt management relies on routine congressional action to raise or suspend the debt limit, a process historically resolved through bipartisan negotiations even amid divided government. With multiple fiscal deadlines expected before 2027, traders price near-certain avoidance based on institutional incentives, the economic costs of default, and precedents like the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act. Primary drivers include sustained US borrowing capacity, Federal Reserve flexibility, and political pressure to prevent market disruption. Scenarios that could still shift odds include extended congressional gridlock blocking a clean increase, an unprecedented fiscal crisis, or sudden legal challenges to Treasury extraordinary measures, though such outcomes remain low-probability given repeated past resolutions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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