Traders price a 97% probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently through the 2025 reconciliation bill that set the cap at $41.1 trillion. Both parties have strong incentives to avoid the market disruptions, higher borrowing costs, and global instability that would follow any missed Treasury payment, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve-currency status, deep Treasury market liquidity, and institutional credibility. The next contact date is projected for spring or summer 2027, with extraordinary measures available to extend runway. Outcomes could still shift under prolonged congressional deadlock, an unforeseen fiscal shock, or failure to complete appropriations legislation before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?
¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?
Sí
3% probabilidad
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$18,051 Vol.
$18,051 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders price a 97% probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently through the 2025 reconciliation bill that set the cap at $41.1 trillion. Both parties have strong incentives to avoid the market disruptions, higher borrowing costs, and global instability that would follow any missed Treasury payment, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve-currency status, deep Treasury market liquidity, and institutional credibility. The next contact date is projected for spring or summer 2027, with extraordinary measures available to extend runway. Outcomes could still shift under prolonged congressional deadlock, an unforeseen fiscal shock, or failure to complete appropriations legislation before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volumen
$18,051Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders price a 97% probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently through the 2025 reconciliation bill that set the cap at $41.1 trillion. Both parties have strong incentives to avoid the market disruptions, higher borrowing costs, and global instability that would follow any missed Treasury payment, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve-currency status, deep Treasury market liquidity, and institutional credibility. The next contact date is projected for spring or summer 2027, with extraordinary measures available to extend runway. Outcomes could still shift under prolonged congressional deadlock, an unforeseen fiscal shock, or failure to complete appropriations legislation before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volumen
$18,051Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders price a 97% probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently through the 2025 reconciliation bill that set the cap at $41.1 trillion. Both parties have strong incentives to avoid the market disruptions, higher borrowing costs, and global instability that would follow any missed Treasury payment, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve-currency status, deep Treasury market liquidity, and institutional credibility. The next contact date is projected for spring or summer 2027, with extraordinary measures available to extend runway. Outcomes could still shift under prolonged congressional deadlock, an unforeseen fiscal shock, or failure to complete appropriations legislation before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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