Traders see 2026 as most likely the second-hottest year on record, with 57.5% market-implied odds, because sustained high greenhouse-gas concentrations continue to drive global temperatures well above pre-industrial baselines even as a developing La Niña pattern tempers extremes compared with the 2023–2025 El Niño peak. NOAA and NASA records show those prior years set successive annual highs, establishing a strong benchmark that makes another outright record in 2026 less probable absent renewed major forcing. Climate-model consensus and seasonal forecasts now point to above-average but not record-shattering conditions through year-end, consistent with post-El Niño historical analogs. Upcoming updates from the World Meteorological Organization and refined ENSO outlooks will provide the next key data points for traders assessing these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
¿Dónde se ubicará 2026 entre los años más calurosos registrados?
2 57%
1 35%
4 2.8%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos 2.3%
$2,820,262 Vol.
$2,820,262 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
35%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
1%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
2%
2 57%
1 35%
4 2.8%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos 2.3%
$2,820,262 Vol.
$2,820,262 Vol.
31 dic 2026
1
$453,726 Vol.
35%
2
$325,824 Vol.
57%
3
$428,143 Vol.
2%
4
$416,574 Vol.
3%
Título del ítem del grupo: 5
$731,047 Vol.
1%
Título del grupo: 6 o menos
$464,948 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see 2026 as most likely the second-hottest year on record, with 57.5% market-implied odds, because sustained high greenhouse-gas concentrations continue to drive global temperatures well above pre-industrial baselines even as a developing La Niña pattern tempers extremes compared with the 2023–2025 El Niño peak. NOAA and NASA records show those prior years set successive annual highs, establishing a strong benchmark that makes another outright record in 2026 less probable absent renewed major forcing. Climate-model consensus and seasonal forecasts now point to above-average but not record-shattering conditions through year-end, consistent with post-El Niño historical analogs. Upcoming updates from the World Meteorological Organization and refined ENSO outlooks will provide the next key data points for traders assessing these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$2,820,262Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see 2026 as most likely the second-hottest year on record, with 57.5% market-implied odds, because sustained high greenhouse-gas concentrations continue to drive global temperatures well above pre-industrial baselines even as a developing La Niña pattern tempers extremes compared with the 2023–2025 El Niño peak. NOAA and NASA records show those prior years set successive annual highs, establishing a strong benchmark that makes another outright record in 2026 less probable absent renewed major forcing. Climate-model consensus and seasonal forecasts now point to above-average but not record-shattering conditions through year-end, consistent with post-El Niño historical analogs. Upcoming updates from the World Meteorological Organization and refined ENSO outlooks will provide the next key data points for traders assessing these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,820,262Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders see 2026 as most likely the second-hottest year on record, with 57.5% market-implied odds, because sustained high greenhouse-gas concentrations continue to drive global temperatures well above pre-industrial baselines even as a developing La Niña pattern tempers extremes compared with the 2023–2025 El Niño peak. NOAA and NASA records show those prior years set successive annual highs, establishing a strong benchmark that makes another outright record in 2026 less probable absent renewed major forcing. Climate-model consensus and seasonal forecasts now point to above-average but not record-shattering conditions through year-end, consistent with post-El Niño historical analogs. Upcoming updates from the World Meteorological Organization and refined ENSO outlooks will provide the next key data points for traders assessing these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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