Wisconsin's 4th congressional district remains a reliably Democratic stronghold, anchored by its Milwaukee urban core and a partisan voter index of D+26 that has produced double-digit margins for the incumbent party in recent cycles. Long-serving Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004 and reelected with nearly 75 percent of the vote in 2024, faces only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 11 contest, while Republican primary candidate Purnima Nath has shown minimal fundraising or organizational strength. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, aligning with the 93.5 percent trader consensus on a Democratic general-election victory. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong Republican recruit, a major local scandal, or a national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's structural Democratic advantage before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWI-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
WI-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$19,230 Vol.
$19,230 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
4%
$19,230 Vol.
$19,230 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$5,971 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$13,259 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin's 4th congressional district remains a reliably Democratic stronghold, anchored by its Milwaukee urban core and a partisan voter index of D+26 that has produced double-digit margins for the incumbent party in recent cycles. Long-serving Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004 and reelected with nearly 75 percent of the vote in 2024, faces only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 11 contest, while Republican primary candidate Purnima Nath has shown minimal fundraising or organizational strength. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, aligning with the 93.5 percent trader consensus on a Democratic general-election victory. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong Republican recruit, a major local scandal, or a national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's structural Democratic advantage before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$19,230Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin's 4th congressional district remains a reliably Democratic stronghold, anchored by its Milwaukee urban core and a partisan voter index of D+26 that has produced double-digit margins for the incumbent party in recent cycles. Long-serving Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004 and reelected with nearly 75 percent of the vote in 2024, faces only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 11 contest, while Republican primary candidate Purnima Nath has shown minimal fundraising or organizational strength. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, aligning with the 93.5 percent trader consensus on a Democratic general-election victory. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong Republican recruit, a major local scandal, or a national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's structural Democratic advantage before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$19,230Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin's 4th congressional district remains a reliably Democratic stronghold, anchored by its Milwaukee urban core and a partisan voter index of D+26 that has produced double-digit margins for the incumbent party in recent cycles. Long-serving Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004 and reelected with nearly 75 percent of the vote in 2024, faces only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 11 contest, while Republican primary candidate Purnima Nath has shown minimal fundraising or organizational strength. Cook Political Report rates the seat Solid Democratic, aligning with the 93.5 percent trader consensus on a Democratic general-election victory. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong Republican recruit, a major local scandal, or a national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's structural Democratic advantage before November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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