Despite public petitions and diplomatic frictions, particularly a Canadian campaign with over 200,000 signatures urging Prime Minister Mark Carney to declare U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata, no government has initiated formal expulsion proceedings as of mid-August 2026. Past actions, such as the 2025 U.S.-South Africa ambassador reciprocal measures and recent U.S. visa actions involving Brazil, have not escalated to host-country removals of U.S. envoys. Trader consensus at 85% for no expulsion by year-end reflects the high political and economic barriers to such steps under the Vienna Convention framework, the absence of acute bilateral crises triggering official retaliation, and the limited resolution window remaining. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and institutional continuity further support expectations that relations will avoid this threshold absent major unforeseen developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
15% probabilidad
$27,622 Vol.
$27,622 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
15% probabilidad
$27,622 Vol.
$27,622 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Despite public petitions and diplomatic frictions, particularly a Canadian campaign with over 200,000 signatures urging Prime Minister Mark Carney to declare U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata, no government has initiated formal expulsion proceedings as of mid-August 2026. Past actions, such as the 2025 U.S.-South Africa ambassador reciprocal measures and recent U.S. visa actions involving Brazil, have not escalated to host-country removals of U.S. envoys. Trader consensus at 85% for no expulsion by year-end reflects the high political and economic barriers to such steps under the Vienna Convention framework, the absence of acute bilateral crises triggering official retaliation, and the limited resolution window remaining. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and institutional continuity further support expectations that relations will avoid this threshold absent major unforeseen developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Volumen
$27,622Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Despite public petitions and diplomatic frictions, particularly a Canadian campaign with over 200,000 signatures urging Prime Minister Mark Carney to declare U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata, no government has initiated formal expulsion proceedings as of mid-August 2026. Past actions, such as the 2025 U.S.-South Africa ambassador reciprocal measures and recent U.S. visa actions involving Brazil, have not escalated to host-country removals of U.S. envoys. Trader consensus at 85% for no expulsion by year-end reflects the high political and economic barriers to such steps under the Vienna Convention framework, the absence of acute bilateral crises triggering official retaliation, and the limited resolution window remaining. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and institutional continuity further support expectations that relations will avoid this threshold absent major unforeseen developments.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any U.S. ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where a U.S. ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a U.S. ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of State, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$27,622Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite public petitions and diplomatic frictions, particularly a Canadian campaign with over 200,000 signatures urging Prime Minister Mark Carney to declare U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata, no government has initiated formal expulsion proceedings as of mid-August 2026. Past actions, such as the 2025 U.S.-South Africa ambassador reciprocal measures and recent U.S. visa actions involving Brazil, have not escalated to host-country removals of U.S. envoys. Trader consensus at 85% for no expulsion by year-end reflects the high political and economic barriers to such steps under the Vienna Convention framework, the absence of acute bilateral crises triggering official retaliation, and the limited resolution window remaining. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and institutional continuity further support expectations that relations will avoid this threshold absent major unforeseen developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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