Traders assign a 99.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious mobilization, troop concentrations, or logistics buildups required for such an operation in the narrow remaining window. Beijing has instead sustained gray-zone pressure through record coast guard and research vessel activity—244 sightings around Taiwan in July alone—alongside routine PLA aircraft incursions and live-fire drills in the strait, consistent with efforts to normalize maritime presence and erode de facto sovereignty without crossing into full conflict. Taiwan has responded with expanded defense procurement, including drone systems and combat-readiness exercises, while cross-strait rhetoric remains tense but unchanged in intensity. An invasion in the next month would still require unforeseen triggers or rapid shifts in force posture that current patterns do not indicate.