**Trader consensus strongly favors no change to the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026, at 90.5% implied probability, reflecting the clock's reliance on infrequent, data-driven revisions rather than rapid shifts in real-time conditions.** The primary versions, such as the Human Impact Lab/Concordia clock and New York Metronome display, base the deadline on annual or quarterly updates to global CO2 emission trends, remaining carbon budgets from sources like the Global Carbon Project, and observed warming rates. Historical revisions have occurred yearly—for instance, adjustments in late 2023 or early 2026 moved projections modestly—but no major new emissions inventory or budget reassessment is expected to alter the displayed date (recently around 2029–2030) before year-end. Current observational data show sustained high emissions and continued warming trends near or exceeding 1.5°C in recent years, with limited near-term policy impacts sufficient to extend the timeline visibly. Realistic scenarios that could challenge this include an unexpected sharp global emissions drop or a major scientific report revising the carbon budget upward, though both remain low-probability events in the remaining months. Market-implied odds align with the clock's methodological stability and the absence of transformative developments in 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cambiará la fecha límite de 1,5° C del Reloj Climático en...?
¿Cambiará la fecha límite de 1,5° C del Reloj Climático en...?
10% probabilidad
$12,981 Vol.
$12,981 Vol.
31 dic 2026
10% probabilidad
$12,981 Vol.
$12,981 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Trader consensus strongly favors no change to the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026, at 90.5% implied probability, reflecting the clock's reliance on infrequent, data-driven revisions rather than rapid shifts in real-time conditions.**
The primary versions, such as the Human Impact Lab/Concordia clock and New York Metronome display, base the deadline on annual or quarterly updates to global CO2 emission trends, remaining carbon budgets from sources like the Global Carbon Project, and observed warming rates. Historical revisions have occurred yearly—for instance, adjustments in late 2023 or early 2026 moved projections modestly—but no major new emissions inventory or budget reassessment is expected to alter the displayed date (recently around 2029–2030) before year-end. Current observational data show sustained high emissions and continued warming trends near or exceeding 1.5°C in recent years, with limited near-term policy impacts sufficient to extend the timeline visibly.
Realistic scenarios that could challenge this include an unexpected sharp global emissions drop or a major scientific report revising the carbon budget upward, though both remain low-probability events in the remaining months. Market-implied odds align with the clock's methodological stability and the absence of transformative developments in 2026.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Mercado abierto: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Volumen
$12,981Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Trader consensus strongly favors no change to the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026, at 90.5% implied probability, reflecting the clock's reliance on infrequent, data-driven revisions rather than rapid shifts in real-time conditions.**
The primary versions, such as the Human Impact Lab/Concordia clock and New York Metronome display, base the deadline on annual or quarterly updates to global CO2 emission trends, remaining carbon budgets from sources like the Global Carbon Project, and observed warming rates. Historical revisions have occurred yearly—for instance, adjustments in late 2023 or early 2026 moved projections modestly—but no major new emissions inventory or budget reassessment is expected to alter the displayed date (recently around 2029–2030) before year-end. Current observational data show sustained high emissions and continued warming trends near or exceeding 1.5°C in recent years, with limited near-term policy impacts sufficient to extend the timeline visibly.
Realistic scenarios that could challenge this include an unexpected sharp global emissions drop or a major scientific report revising the carbon budget upward, though both remain low-probability events in the remaining months. Market-implied odds align with the clock's methodological stability and the absence of transformative developments in 2026.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Volumen
$12,981Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus strongly favors no change to the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline by December 31, 2026, at 90.5% implied probability, reflecting the clock's reliance on infrequent, data-driven revisions rather than rapid shifts in real-time conditions.** The primary versions, such as the Human Impact Lab/Concordia clock and New York Metronome display, base the deadline on annual or quarterly updates to global CO2 emission trends, remaining carbon budgets from sources like the Global Carbon Project, and observed warming rates. Historical revisions have occurred yearly—for instance, adjustments in late 2023 or early 2026 moved projections modestly—but no major new emissions inventory or budget reassessment is expected to alter the displayed date (recently around 2029–2030) before year-end. Current observational data show sustained high emissions and continued warming trends near or exceeding 1.5°C in recent years, with limited near-term policy impacts sufficient to extend the timeline visibly. Realistic scenarios that could challenge this include an unexpected sharp global emissions drop or a major scientific report revising the carbon budget upward, though both remain low-probability events in the remaining months. Market-implied odds align with the clock's methodological stability and the absence of transformative developments in 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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