Republican control of the House has kept the probability of impeachment low, as any articles require a simple majority that currently depends on unified Democratic support plus Republican defections. The most recent attempt, introduced by Rep. Al Green in August 2026 and centered on immigration enforcement actions by ICE and CBP, was tabled on September 15 by a 232-147 vote after Democratic leaders opted to vote present rather than advance the measure ahead of the November midterms. House Democratic leadership has emphasized the need for broad consensus and investigative process before pursuing impeachment, while noting the option remains available if they gain the majority. Markets reflect this institutional barrier, with trader consensus assigning limited near-term odds absent a major bipartisan trigger or shift in chamber control.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHouse vote failure solidifies no impeachment outcome for 2026
Following the failed impeachment vote and lack of further action, the market price for impeachment by December 31, 2026, remained low and stable at 2%, reflecting consensus that impeachment was unlikely in that timeframe.
House kills Al Green’s eighth attempt to impeach President Trump
December 31, 2027 jumps to 52%8%
On September 17, 2026, the Republican-controlled House rejected another impeachment effort by Al Green, voting to table the resolution before a vote on the merits, reflecting ongoing political challenges and impacting market sentiment.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes