Trump's late-2025 proposal for roughly $2,000 tariff-funded payments to lower- and middle-income households has seen no legislative advancement in Congress, with no authorizing bill, appropriations measure, or tax-credit mechanism reaching committee or floor consideration. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities under prior executive orders, sharply reducing projected revenue streams available for such rebates. With the June 30 resolution deadline now under two weeks away and no administrative infrastructure established, trader consensus assigns a near-certain probability to "No." A narrow last-minute executive directive or continuing resolution remains theoretically feasible but confronts steep legal, procedural, and timing constraints that have kept implied odds for implementation below 5 percent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$18,339 Vol.
$18,339 Vol.
30 jun 2026
$18,339 Vol.
$18,339 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's late-2025 proposal for roughly $2,000 tariff-funded payments to lower- and middle-income households has seen no legislative advancement in Congress, with no authorizing bill, appropriations measure, or tax-credit mechanism reaching committee or floor consideration. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities under prior executive orders, sharply reducing projected revenue streams available for such rebates. With the June 30 resolution deadline now under two weeks away and no administrative infrastructure established, trader consensus assigns a near-certain probability to "No." A narrow last-minute executive directive or continuing resolution remains theoretically feasible but confronts steep legal, procedural, and timing constraints that have kept implied odds for implementation below 5 percent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ET
Volumen
$18,339Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's late-2025 proposal for roughly $2,000 tariff-funded payments to lower- and middle-income households has seen no legislative advancement in Congress, with no authorizing bill, appropriations measure, or tax-credit mechanism reaching committee or floor consideration. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities under prior executive orders, sharply reducing projected revenue streams available for such rebates. With the June 30 resolution deadline now under two weeks away and no administrative infrastructure established, trader consensus assigns a near-certain probability to "No." A narrow last-minute executive directive or continuing resolution remains theoretically feasible but confronts steep legal, procedural, and timing constraints that have kept implied odds for implementation below 5 percent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$18,339Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's late-2025 proposal for roughly $2,000 tariff-funded payments to lower- and middle-income households has seen no legislative advancement in Congress, with no authorizing bill, appropriations measure, or tax-credit mechanism reaching committee or floor consideration. A February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key tariff authorities under prior executive orders, sharply reducing projected revenue streams available for such rebates. With the June 30 resolution deadline now under two weeks away and no administrative infrastructure established, trader consensus assigns a near-certain probability to "No." A narrow last-minute executive directive or continuing resolution remains theoretically feasible but confronts steep legal, procedural, and timing constraints that have kept implied odds for implementation below 5 percent.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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