Trader consensus prices a 90.5% chance against President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of executive action or signed legislation despite his November 2025 proposal for $2,000 payments to low- and middle-income Americans from tariff revenue. Recent U.S. Court of International Trade rulings, including the May 7 decision invalidating 10% global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act, have prompted U.S. Customs and Border Protection to begin billions in refunds to importers and brokers this week—diverting funds away from any citizen rebate program. With no Treasury or IRS mechanism announced, fiscal analyses highlighting insufficient revenue, and priorities shifting to debt reduction and new trade measures amid legal challenges, substantial barriers remain in the final six weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$11,462 Vol.
$11,462 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$11,462 Vol.
$11,462 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 90.5% chance against President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of executive action or signed legislation despite his November 2025 proposal for $2,000 payments to low- and middle-income Americans from tariff revenue. Recent U.S. Court of International Trade rulings, including the May 7 decision invalidating 10% global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act, have prompted U.S. Customs and Border Protection to begin billions in refunds to importers and brokers this week—diverting funds away from any citizen rebate program. With no Treasury or IRS mechanism announced, fiscal analyses highlighting insufficient revenue, and priorities shifting to debt reduction and new trade measures amid legal challenges, substantial barriers remain in the final six weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ET
Volumen
$11,462Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a 90.5% chance against President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of executive action or signed legislation despite his November 2025 proposal for $2,000 payments to low- and middle-income Americans from tariff revenue. Recent U.S. Court of International Trade rulings, including the May 7 decision invalidating 10% global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act, have prompted U.S. Customs and Border Protection to begin billions in refunds to importers and brokers this week—diverting funds away from any citizen rebate program. With no Treasury or IRS mechanism announced, fiscal analyses highlighting insufficient revenue, and priorities shifting to debt reduction and new trade measures amid legal challenges, substantial barriers remain in the final six weeks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$11,462Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 90.5% chance against President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of executive action or signed legislation despite his November 2025 proposal for $2,000 payments to low- and middle-income Americans from tariff revenue. Recent U.S. Court of International Trade rulings, including the May 7 decision invalidating 10% global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act, have prompted U.S. Customs and Border Protection to begin billions in refunds to importers and brokers this week—diverting funds away from any citizen rebate program. With no Treasury or IRS mechanism announced, fiscal analyses highlighting insufficient revenue, and priorities shifting to debt reduction and new trade measures amid legal challenges, substantial barriers remain in the final six weeks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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