Recent voter registration drives have expanded Zambia’s eligible electorate ahead of the August 13 presidential vote, supporting trader expectations for turnout in the 50-60% range that aligns with the country’s long-term average. Incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema’s UPND holds a polling lead, yet opposition concerns over legal processes and uneven application of campaign rules create uncertainty about mobilization levels. Youth participation, a decisive factor in 2021, remains a key variable, while broader economic pressures and polarized perceptions of electoral fairness could either boost or dampen participation. Scheduled campaign activities through early August and any further registration updates are the most immediate factors that could shift implied probabilities across the current brackets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPrimera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Zambia: participación
Primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Zambia: participación
60-70% 38%
70-80% 22%
50-60% 18%
<50% 13%
$28,509 Vol.
$28,509 Vol.
<50%
13%
50-60%
18%
60-70%
38%
70-80%
22%
80%+
13%
60-70% 38%
70-80% 22%
50-60% 18%
<50% 13%
$28,509 Vol.
$28,509 Vol.
<50%
13%
50-60%
18%
60-70%
38%
70-80%
22%
80%+
13%
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of registered voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Zambian government, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (https://www.elections.org.zm/).
Mercado abierto: Jun 5, 2026, 4:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of registered voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Zambian government, including the Electoral Commission of Zambia (https://www.elections.org.zm/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent voter registration drives have expanded Zambia’s eligible electorate ahead of the August 13 presidential vote, supporting trader expectations for turnout in the 50-60% range that aligns with the country’s long-term average. Incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema’s UPND holds a polling lead, yet opposition concerns over legal processes and uneven application of campaign rules create uncertainty about mobilization levels. Youth participation, a decisive factor in 2021, remains a key variable, while broader economic pressures and polarized perceptions of electoral fairness could either boost or dampen participation. Scheduled campaign activities through early August and any further registration updates are the most immediate factors that could shift implied probabilities across the current brackets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Ganará Hakainde Hichilema las elecciones presidenciales de Zambia en 2026?
¿Obtendrá el SP la segunda mayor cantidad de escaños en las elecciones de la Asamblea Nacional de Zambia de 2026?
¿Ganará UPND la mayoría de los escaños en las elecciones a la Asamblea Nacional de Zambia de 2026?
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes