Early generic ballot surveys through mid-May show Democrats holding a modest national lead averaging around five to six points, consistent with the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Traders assign the highest probability to "Other" at 45.5 percent because the exact margin remains difficult to pin down amid redistricting changes in multiple states and historical tendencies for polls to overstate the out-party advantage. Narrow Democratic edges in the 8-to-10-point and 10-to-12-point ranges follow at 15.5 percent and 12.5 percent, while Republican outcomes cluster near zero to four points, reflecting GOP strengths on immigration and border security that could compress the margin closer to historical norms by November. Ongoing primaries, fundraising trends, and any shifts in presidential approval continue to shape these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrats 8-10% 16%
Democrats 10-12% 13%
Republicans 0-2% 9.6%
Democrats 6-8% 8%
$34,848 Vol.
$34,848 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
3%
Democrats 14-16%
3%
Democrats 12-14%
4%
Democrats 10-12%
13%
Democrats 8-10%
16%
Democrats 6-8%
8%
Democrats 4-6%
7%
Democrats 2-4%
3%
Democrats 0-2%
5%
Republicans 0-2%
10%
Republicans 2-4%
8%
Republicans 4-6%
2%
Republicans 6%+
3%
Democrats 8-10% 16%
Democrats 10-12% 13%
Republicans 0-2% 9.6%
Democrats 6-8% 8%
$34,848 Vol.
$34,848 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$804 Vol.
3%
Democrats 14-16%
$476 Vol.
3%
Democrats 12-14%
$462 Vol.
4%
Democrats 10-12%
$830 Vol.
13%
Democrats 8-10%
$1,555 Vol.
16%
Democrats 6-8%
$693 Vol.
8%
Democrats 4-6%
$258 Vol.
7%
Democrats 2-4%
$1,012 Vol.
3%
Democrats 0-2%
$889 Vol.
5%
Republicans 0-2%
$864 Vol.
10%
Republicans 2-4%
$26,019 Vol.
8%
Republicans 4-6%
$230 Vol.
2%
Republicans 6%+
$757 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Early generic ballot surveys through mid-May show Democrats holding a modest national lead averaging around five to six points, consistent with the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Traders assign the highest probability to "Other" at 45.5 percent because the exact margin remains difficult to pin down amid redistricting changes in multiple states and historical tendencies for polls to overstate the out-party advantage. Narrow Democratic edges in the 8-to-10-point and 10-to-12-point ranges follow at 15.5 percent and 12.5 percent, while Republican outcomes cluster near zero to four points, reflecting GOP strengths on immigration and border security that could compress the margin closer to historical norms by November. Ongoing primaries, fundraising trends, and any shifts in presidential approval continue to shape these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$34,848End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Early generic ballot surveys through mid-May show Democrats holding a modest national lead averaging around five to six points, consistent with the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Traders assign the highest probability to "Other" at 45.5 percent because the exact margin remains difficult to pin down amid redistricting changes in multiple states and historical tendencies for polls to overstate the out-party advantage. Narrow Democratic edges in the 8-to-10-point and 10-to-12-point ranges follow at 15.5 percent and 12.5 percent, while Republican outcomes cluster near zero to four points, reflecting GOP strengths on immigration and border security that could compress the margin closer to historical norms by November. Ongoing primaries, fundraising trends, and any shifts in presidential approval continue to shape these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$34,848End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early generic ballot surveys through mid-May show Democrats holding a modest national lead averaging around five to six points, consistent with the typical midterm penalty for the president's party. Traders assign the highest probability to "Other" at 45.5 percent because the exact margin remains difficult to pin down amid redistricting changes in multiple states and historical tendencies for polls to overstate the out-party advantage. Narrow Democratic edges in the 8-to-10-point and 10-to-12-point ranges follow at 15.5 percent and 12.5 percent, while Republican outcomes cluster near zero to four points, reflecting GOP strengths on immigration and border security that could compress the margin closer to historical norms by November. Ongoing primaries, fundraising trends, and any shifts in presidential approval continue to shape these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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