Recent national polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 7 to 10 points among likely voters, reflecting a substantial swing from the 2024 results and aligning with historical midterm patterns for the opposition party. Low presidential approval ratings near 38 percent, combined with voter concerns over economic conditions and the right-track measure, have contributed to this positioning. Traders appear to price the highest probabilities on Democratic popular-vote margins of 8 to 12 percent, while the elevated share for “Other” captures uncertainty around narrower victories, turnout dynamics in battleground districts, and the final weeks of campaigning before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDemocrats 8-10% 27%
Democrats 10-12% 22%
Democrats 6-8% 18%
Democrats 12-14% 11.9%
$139,600 Vol.
$139,600 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Democrats 16%+
1%
Democrats 14-16%
2%
Democrats 12-14%
12%
Democrats 10-12%
22%
Democrats 8-10%
27%
Democrats 6-8%
18%
Democrats 4-6%
11%
Democrats 2-4%
6%
Democrats 0-2%
2%
Republicans 0-2%
4%
Republicans 2-4%
3%
Republicans 4-6%
1%
Republicans 6%+
1%
Democrats 8-10% 27%
Democrats 10-12% 22%
Democrats 6-8% 18%
Democrats 12-14% 11.9%
$139,600 Vol.
$139,600 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Democrats 16%+
$3,786 Vol.
1%
Democrats 14-16%
$3,593 Vol.
2%
Democrats 12-14%
$4,873 Vol.
12%
Democrats 10-12%
$9,185 Vol.
22%
Democrats 8-10%
$14,518 Vol.
27%
Democrats 6-8%
$15,896 Vol.
18%
Democrats 4-6%
$7,080 Vol.
11%
Democrats 2-4%
$16,407 Vol.
6%
Democrats 0-2%
$20,082 Vol.
2%
Republicans 0-2%
$6,001 Vol.
4%
Republicans 2-4%
$30,429 Vol.
3%
Republicans 4-6%
$3,768 Vol.
1%
Republicans 6%+
$3,982 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent national polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 7 to 10 points among likely voters, reflecting a substantial swing from the 2024 results and aligning with historical midterm patterns for the opposition party. Low presidential approval ratings near 38 percent, combined with voter concerns over economic conditions and the right-track measure, have contributed to this positioning. Traders appear to price the highest probabilities on Democratic popular-vote margins of 8 to 12 percent, while the elevated share for “Other” captures uncertainty around narrower victories, turnout dynamics in battleground districts, and the final weeks of campaigning before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Market Opened: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$139,600End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent national polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 7 to 10 points among likely voters, reflecting a substantial swing from the 2024 results and aligning with historical midterm patterns for the opposition party. Low presidential approval ratings near 38 percent, combined with voter concerns over economic conditions and the right-track measure, have contributed to this positioning. Traders appear to price the highest probabilities on Democratic popular-vote margins of 8 to 12 percent, while the elevated share for “Other” captures uncertainty around narrower victories, turnout dynamics in battleground districts, and the final weeks of campaigning before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Volume
$139,600End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent national polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 7 to 10 points among likely voters, reflecting a substantial swing from the 2024 results and aligning with historical midterm patterns for the opposition party. Low presidential approval ratings near 38 percent, combined with voter concerns over economic conditions and the right-track measure, have contributed to this positioning. Traders appear to price the highest probabilities on Democratic popular-vote margins of 8 to 12 percent, while the elevated share for “Other” captures uncertainty around narrower victories, turnout dynamics in battleground districts, and the final weeks of campaigning before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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