The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquakes underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability of no such event before 2027. USGS records and recurrence modeling indicate these megathrust quakes occur globally at rates of roughly one to three per century on average, with the most recent confirmed instance in 2011. Recent seismic activity through mid-2026 shows maximum magnitudes around 8.8, consistent with typical yearly patterns of fewer than two 8.0+ events worldwide. While subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai could theoretically produce a great quake given long-term strain accumulation, the short remaining timeframe and absence of accelerating precursors in current USGS monitoring data sustain strong trader consensus for the "no" outcome, barring an unanticipated cluster.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$191,440 Vol.
$191,440 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$191,440 Vol.
$191,440 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquakes underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability of no such event before 2027. USGS records and recurrence modeling indicate these megathrust quakes occur globally at rates of roughly one to three per century on average, with the most recent confirmed instance in 2011. Recent seismic activity through mid-2026 shows maximum magnitudes around 8.8, consistent with typical yearly patterns of fewer than two 8.0+ events worldwide. While subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai could theoretically produce a great quake given long-term strain accumulation, the short remaining timeframe and absence of accelerating precursors in current USGS monitoring data sustain strong trader consensus for the "no" outcome, barring an unanticipated cluster.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$191,440End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquakes underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability of no such event before 2027. USGS records and recurrence modeling indicate these megathrust quakes occur globally at rates of roughly one to three per century on average, with the most recent confirmed instance in 2011. Recent seismic activity through mid-2026 shows maximum magnitudes around 8.8, consistent with typical yearly patterns of fewer than two 8.0+ events worldwide. While subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai could theoretically produce a great quake given long-term strain accumulation, the short remaining timeframe and absence of accelerating precursors in current USGS monitoring data sustain strong trader consensus for the "no" outcome, barring an unanticipated cluster.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$191,440End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquakes underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability of no such event before 2027. USGS records and recurrence modeling indicate these megathrust quakes occur globally at rates of roughly one to three per century on average, with the most recent confirmed instance in 2011. Recent seismic activity through mid-2026 shows maximum magnitudes around 8.8, consistent with typical yearly patterns of fewer than two 8.0+ events worldwide. While subduction zones like Cascadia or Nankai could theoretically produce a great quake given long-term strain accumulation, the short remaining timeframe and absence of accelerating precursors in current USGS monitoring data sustain strong trader consensus for the "no" outcome, barring an unanticipated cluster.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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