Recent April 2026 durable goods orders surged 7.9% month-over-month—well above the 3.5% consensus—driven primarily by a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment including nondefense aircraft, creating a high base that raises the likelihood of mean reversion in May. Persistent Fed funds rate levels continue to weigh on business investment in capital goods, as evidenced by the April decline in nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, while broader manufacturing indicators point to moderating demand. The wide dispersion of market-implied probabilities across negative and modestly positive buckets reflects uncertainty over whether transportation volatility or underlying weakness in core orders will dominate the upcoming June 25 release.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật<-4% 34.5%
-4%– -2% 23%
0%–2% 11%
-2%– 0% 10.2%
$42,334 KL.
$42,334 KL.
Jun 25, 2026
<-4%
34%
-4%– -2%
23%
-2%– 0%
10%
0%–2%
11%
2%–4%
10%
4%–6%
7%
6%-8%
1%
8%+
1%
<-4% 34.5%
-4%– -2% 23%
0%–2% 11%
-2%– 0% 10.2%
$42,334 KL.
$42,334 KL.
Jun 25, 2026
<-4%
$2,797 KL.
34%
-4%– -2%
$4,200 KL.
23%
-2%– 0%
$1,494 KL.
10%
0%–2%
$7,163 KL.
11%
2%–4%
$13,987 KL.
10%
4%–6%
$7,957 KL.
7%
6%-8%
$2,820 KL.
1%
8%+
$1,915 KL.
1%
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent April 2026 durable goods orders surged 7.9% month-over-month—well above the 3.5% consensus—driven primarily by a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment including nondefense aircraft, creating a high base that raises the likelihood of mean reversion in May. Persistent Fed funds rate levels continue to weigh on business investment in capital goods, as evidenced by the April decline in nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, while broader manufacturing indicators point to moderating demand. The wide dispersion of market-implied probabilities across negative and modestly positive buckets reflects uncertainty over whether transportation volatility or underlying weakness in core orders will dominate the upcoming June 25 release.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Thị trường mở: Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Khối lượng
$42,334Ngày kết thúc
Jun 25, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent April 2026 durable goods orders surged 7.9% month-over-month—well above the 3.5% consensus—driven primarily by a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment including nondefense aircraft, creating a high base that raises the likelihood of mean reversion in May. Persistent Fed funds rate levels continue to weigh on business investment in capital goods, as evidenced by the April decline in nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, while broader manufacturing indicators point to moderating demand. The wide dispersion of market-implied probabilities across negative and modestly positive buckets reflects uncertainty over whether transportation volatility or underlying weakness in core orders will dominate the upcoming June 25 release.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Khối lượng
$42,334Ngày kết thúc
Jun 25, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 durable goods orders surged 7.9% month-over-month—well above the 3.5% consensus—driven primarily by a 21.5% jump in transportation equipment including nondefense aircraft, creating a high base that raises the likelihood of mean reversion in May. Persistent Fed funds rate levels continue to weigh on business investment in capital goods, as evidenced by the April decline in nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, while broader manufacturing indicators point to moderating demand. The wide dispersion of market-implied probabilities across negative and modestly positive buckets reflects uncertainty over whether transportation volatility or underlying weakness in core orders will dominate the upcoming June 25 release.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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