Traders have overwhelmingly priced the 40-64 tweet range at near-certain levels because Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence on X aligns with his established baseline during routine periods without major product launches, regulatory announcements, or viral cultural moments. Three-day windows in late August typically reflect steady but not accelerated activity, supported by consistent daily engagement patterns rather than spikes tied to earnings calls, political developments, or high-profile interviews. The extremely low odds on higher brackets reflect the absence of confirmed catalysts that historically drive volume surges, such as Tesla or SpaceX milestones. An upset into the 140-plus range would require an unexpected breaking event in the final hours that prompts sustained thread activity or rapid replies, though such shifts remain rare without verifiable external triggers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$533,739 Vol.
$533,739 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<40
No
40-64
Yes
65-89
No
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$533,739 Vol.
$533,739 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<40
$90,725 Vol.
No
40-64
$114,296 Vol.
Yes
65-89
$116,024 Vol.
No
90-114
$99,637 Vol.
No
115-139
$73,959 Vol.
No
140-164
$19,163 Vol.
No
165-189
$11,912 Vol.
No
190-214
$4,938 Vol.
No
215-239
$1,811 Vol.
No
240+
$1,274 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have overwhelmingly priced the 40-64 tweet range at near-certain levels because Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence on X aligns with his established baseline during routine periods without major product launches, regulatory announcements, or viral cultural moments. Three-day windows in late August typically reflect steady but not accelerated activity, supported by consistent daily engagement patterns rather than spikes tied to earnings calls, political developments, or high-profile interviews. The extremely low odds on higher brackets reflect the absence of confirmed catalysts that historically drive volume surges, such as Tesla or SpaceX milestones. An upset into the 140-plus range would require an unexpected breaking event in the final hours that prompts sustained thread activity or rapid replies, though such shifts remain rare without verifiable external triggers.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$533,739End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders have overwhelmingly priced the 40-64 tweet range at near-certain levels because Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence on X aligns with his established baseline during routine periods without major product launches, regulatory announcements, or viral cultural moments. Three-day windows in late August typically reflect steady but not accelerated activity, supported by consistent daily engagement patterns rather than spikes tied to earnings calls, political developments, or high-profile interviews. The extremely low odds on higher brackets reflect the absence of confirmed catalysts that historically drive volume surges, such as Tesla or SpaceX milestones. An upset into the 140-plus range would require an unexpected breaking event in the final hours that prompts sustained thread activity or rapid replies, though such shifts remain rare without verifiable external triggers.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 29 12:00 PM ET to August 31, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$533,739End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have overwhelmingly priced the 40-64 tweet range at near-certain levels because Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence on X aligns with his established baseline during routine periods without major product launches, regulatory announcements, or viral cultural moments. Three-day windows in late August typically reflect steady but not accelerated activity, supported by consistent daily engagement patterns rather than spikes tied to earnings calls, political developments, or high-profile interviews. The extremely low odds on higher brackets reflect the absence of confirmed catalysts that historically drive volume surges, such as Tesla or SpaceX milestones. An upset into the 140-plus range would require an unexpected breaking event in the final hours that prompts sustained thread activity or rapid replies, though such shifts remain rare without verifiable external triggers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions