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icon for #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?
Tech·App

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?

icon for #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?
Tech·App

#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?

Sep 25

Sep 25

ChatGPT 53%

Muse from Meta 42%

Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace 29%

Google Gemini 3.5%

Polymarket
NEW

ChatGPT 53%

Muse from Meta 42%

Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace 29%

Google Gemini 3.5%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for ChatGPT

ChatGPT

$182 Vol.

53%

icon for Muse from Meta

Muse from Meta

$661 Vol.

23%

icon for Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace

Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace

$376 Vol.

29%

icon for Google Gemini

Google Gemini

$100 Vol.

3%

icon for Amazon Prime Video

Amazon Prime Video

$110 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).Meta’s Muse AI agent, launched September 8 with task-completion features like email sending and booking, rapidly climbed to No. 1 on the U.S. App Store free chart within days, displacing ChatGPT and driving the latter’s current 52.5% implied probability for the No. 2 spot on September 25. Trader sentiment reflects Muse’s strong early downloads and daily active users versus ChatGPT’s established base, alongside Vinted’s recent U.S. marketplace expansions and Gemini’s incremental updates, creating a tight race among AI and shopping apps. Key swing factors include sustained momentum from Muse’s agentic capabilities, potential weekend ranking volatility, and any last-minute promotions or updates from competitors before resolution.

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Volume
$1,429
End Date
Sep 25, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).Meta’s Muse AI agent, launched September 8 with task-completion features like email sending and booking, rapidly climbed to No. 1 on the U.S. App Store free chart within days, displacing ChatGPT and driving the latter’s current 52.5% implied probability for the No. 2 spot on September 25. Trader sentiment reflects Muse’s strong early downloads and daily active users versus ChatGPT’s established base, alongside Vinted’s recent U.S. marketplace expansions and Gemini’s incremental updates, creating a tight race among AI and shopping apps. Key swing factors include sustained momentum from Muse’s agentic capabilities, potential weekend ranking volatility, and any last-minute promotions or updates from competitors before resolution.

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. If the chart is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET, this market may remain open for up to 48 hours to allow for the data to become available. If the data remains unavailable, this market will resolve according to the last published ranking. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Volume
$1,429
End Date
Sep 25, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "ChatGPT" at 54%, followed by "Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?" is "ChatGPT" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Vinted: Pre-loved marketplace" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 25?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.