Traders assign a 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient April 2026 economic data and sticky inflation that have kept the federal funds rate anchored at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Hotter-than-expected April CPI and solid nonfarm payrolls have reinforced the Fed’s patient stance following its April decision, where elevated dissent underscored caution amid mixed signals on growth and prices. Market-implied odds remain consistent with the CME FedWatch tool’s assessment of limited near-term policy shifts. A sharp downside surprise in May CPI or June employment figures could still tilt expectations toward a 25 basis point cut, though such outcomes appear unlikely given current momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 94%
25 bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease 2.5%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$5,604,487 Vol.
$5,604,487 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
2%
No change
94%
25 bps increase
4%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 94%
25 bps increase 4.0%
25 bps decrease 2.5%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$5,604,487 Vol.
$5,604,487 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$554,886 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$427,056 Vol.
2%
No change
$663,128 Vol.
94%
25 bps increase
$3,408,431 Vol.
4%
50+ bps increase
$550,986 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient April 2026 economic data and sticky inflation that have kept the federal funds rate anchored at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Hotter-than-expected April CPI and solid nonfarm payrolls have reinforced the Fed’s patient stance following its April decision, where elevated dissent underscored caution amid mixed signals on growth and prices. Market-implied odds remain consistent with the CME FedWatch tool’s assessment of limited near-term policy shifts. A sharp downside surprise in May CPI or June employment figures could still tilt expectations toward a 25 basis point cut, though such outcomes appear unlikely given current momentum.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$5,604,487End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient April 2026 economic data and sticky inflation that have kept the federal funds rate anchored at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Hotter-than-expected April CPI and solid nonfarm payrolls have reinforced the Fed’s patient stance following its April decision, where elevated dissent underscored caution amid mixed signals on growth and prices. Market-implied odds remain consistent with the CME FedWatch tool’s assessment of limited near-term policy shifts. A sharp downside surprise in May CPI or June employment figures could still tilt expectations toward a 25 basis point cut, though such outcomes appear unlikely given current momentum.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$5,604,487End Date
Jul 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 93.5% market-implied probability of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient April 2026 economic data and sticky inflation that have kept the federal funds rate anchored at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. Hotter-than-expected April CPI and solid nonfarm payrolls have reinforced the Fed’s patient stance following its April decision, where elevated dissent underscored caution amid mixed signals on growth and prices. Market-implied odds remain consistent with the CME FedWatch tool’s assessment of limited near-term policy shifts. A sharp downside surprise in May CPI or June employment figures could still tilt expectations toward a 25 basis point cut, though such outcomes appear unlikely given current momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions