Current numerical weather prediction models, including those from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble, indicate a most probable daily maximum temperature of 33–35°C for Madrid on July 13, directly supporting the market’s highest implied probabilities on those outcomes. This range aligns with mid-July climatology, where average highs reach approximately 34°C under subtropical high-pressure dominance and typical dry, sunny conditions with modest southerly flow. No strong heatwave signals or anomalous upper-level ridging appear in recent model runs, keeping probabilities for 36°C or higher below 10 percent while limiting downside risk below 33°C. Traders are weighting the latest short-range guidance, which shows stable steering patterns and limited day-to-day variability through the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on July 13?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 13?
34°C 36%
33°C 35%
35°C 16%
32°C or below 16%
NEW
NEW
Jul 13, 2026
32°C or below
12%
33°C
35%
34°C
36%
35°C
16%
36°C
7%
37°C
3%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
34°C 36%
33°C 35%
35°C 16%
32°C or below 16%
NEW
NEW
Jul 13, 2026
32°C or below
$25 Vol.
12%
33°C
$35 Vol.
35%
34°C
$50 Vol.
36%
35°C
$28 Vol.
16%
36°C
$39 Vol.
7%
37°C
$3 Vol.
3%
38°C
$27 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$90 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including those from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble, indicate a most probable daily maximum temperature of 33–35°C for Madrid on July 13, directly supporting the market’s highest implied probabilities on those outcomes. This range aligns with mid-July climatology, where average highs reach approximately 34°C under subtropical high-pressure dominance and typical dry, sunny conditions with modest southerly flow. No strong heatwave signals or anomalous upper-level ridging appear in recent model runs, keeping probabilities for 36°C or higher below 10 percent while limiting downside risk below 33°C. Traders are weighting the latest short-range guidance, which shows stable steering patterns and limited day-to-day variability through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$296End Date
Jul 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including those from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble, indicate a most probable daily maximum temperature of 33–35°C for Madrid on July 13, directly supporting the market’s highest implied probabilities on those outcomes. This range aligns with mid-July climatology, where average highs reach approximately 34°C under subtropical high-pressure dominance and typical dry, sunny conditions with modest southerly flow. No strong heatwave signals or anomalous upper-level ridging appear in recent model runs, keeping probabilities for 36°C or higher below 10 percent while limiting downside risk below 33°C. Traders are weighting the latest short-range guidance, which shows stable steering patterns and limited day-to-day variability through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$296End Date
Jul 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models, including those from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble, indicate a most probable daily maximum temperature of 33–35°C for Madrid on July 13, directly supporting the market’s highest implied probabilities on those outcomes. This range aligns with mid-July climatology, where average highs reach approximately 34°C under subtropical high-pressure dominance and typical dry, sunny conditions with modest southerly flow. No strong heatwave signals or anomalous upper-level ridging appear in recent model runs, keeping probabilities for 36°C or higher below 10 percent while limiting downside risk below 33°C. Traders are weighting the latest short-range guidance, which shows stable steering patterns and limited day-to-day variability through the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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