Mexico City's high-elevation setting (approximately 2,240 m) and peak rainy-season conditions produce a tight clustering of forecast highs around the long-term July average of 23–24°C. Recent model guidance and station observations show daytime maxima modulated primarily by variable cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and solar insolation, with limited potential for brief clear spells to push readings to 25–26°C. The near-even split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes in the market reflects this narrow uncertainty band, as modest shifts in precipitation timing or boundary-layer moisture can differentiate those thresholds without altering the broader climatological regime. Updated short-range forecasts and local observations on July 12 will resolve the precise peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on July 12?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 12?
25°C 33%
24°C 32%
26°C 17%
23°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Jul 12, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
3%
23°C
16%
24°C
32%
25°C
33%
26°C
17%
27°C
3%
28°C or higher
2%
25°C 33%
24°C 32%
26°C 17%
23°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Jul 12, 2026
18°C or below
$108 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$263 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$92 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$174 Vol.
2%
22°C
$217 Vol.
3%
23°C
$338 Vol.
16%
24°C
$46 Vol.
32%
25°C
$48 Vol.
33%
26°C
$64 Vol.
17%
27°C
$189 Vol.
3%
28°C or higher
$42 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Mexico City's high-elevation setting (approximately 2,240 m) and peak rainy-season conditions produce a tight clustering of forecast highs around the long-term July average of 23–24°C. Recent model guidance and station observations show daytime maxima modulated primarily by variable cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and solar insolation, with limited potential for brief clear spells to push readings to 25–26°C. The near-even split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes in the market reflects this narrow uncertainty band, as modest shifts in precipitation timing or boundary-layer moisture can differentiate those thresholds without altering the broader climatological regime. Updated short-range forecasts and local observations on July 12 will resolve the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$1,579End Date
Jul 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Mexico City's high-elevation setting (approximately 2,240 m) and peak rainy-season conditions produce a tight clustering of forecast highs around the long-term July average of 23–24°C. Recent model guidance and station observations show daytime maxima modulated primarily by variable cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and solar insolation, with limited potential for brief clear spells to push readings to 25–26°C. The near-even split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes in the market reflects this narrow uncertainty band, as modest shifts in precipitation timing or boundary-layer moisture can differentiate those thresholds without altering the broader climatological regime. Updated short-range forecasts and local observations on July 12 will resolve the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,579End Date
Jul 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mexico City's high-elevation setting (approximately 2,240 m) and peak rainy-season conditions produce a tight clustering of forecast highs around the long-term July average of 23–24°C. Recent model guidance and station observations show daytime maxima modulated primarily by variable cloud cover, afternoon convective showers, and solar insolation, with limited potential for brief clear spells to push readings to 25–26°C. The near-even split between 24°C and 25°C outcomes in the market reflects this narrow uncertainty band, as modest shifts in precipitation timing or boundary-layer moisture can differentiate those thresholds without altering the broader climatological regime. Updated short-range forecasts and local observations on July 12 will resolve the precise peak.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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