**Current forecasts from Météo-France and extended models point to a persistent heatwave keeping overnight lows in Paris elevated well above July climatological norms of 14–16°C.** As of July 11, guidance for the July 12–13 night shows minimum temperatures most likely between 21–24°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities around those bins. Key drivers include a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm-air advection from the south, combined with limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads in global models (ECMWF, GFS) create the main uncertainty: small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or cloud cover can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, which explains why 21°C-or-below, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C outcomes trade within a narrow 21–27% range. Resolution depends on the official Paris observing station’s 24-hour minimum (typically recorded near dawn on July 13), so fresh model runs and Météo-France updates over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any re-pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on July 13?
Lowest temperature in Paris on July 13?
23°C 28%
21°C or below 22%
22°C 22%
24°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Jul 13, 2026
21°C or below
22%
22°C
22%
23°C
28%
24°C
22%
25°C
7%
26°C
5%
27°C
2%
28°C
<1%
29°C
15%
30°C
15%
31°C or higher
15%
23°C 28%
21°C or below 22%
22°C 22%
24°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Jul 13, 2026
21°C or below
$10 Vol.
22%
22°C
$0 Vol.
22%
23°C
$8 Vol.
28%
24°C
$25 Vol.
22%
25°C
$0 Vol.
7%
26°C
$0 Vol.
5%
27°C
$133 Vol.
2%
28°C
$222 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$27 Vol.
15%
30°C
$27 Vol.
15%
31°C or higher
$27 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from Météo-France and extended models point to a persistent heatwave keeping overnight lows in Paris elevated well above July climatological norms of 14–16°C.** As of July 11, guidance for the July 12–13 night shows minimum temperatures most likely between 21–24°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities around those bins.
Key drivers include a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm-air advection from the south, combined with limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads in global models (ECMWF, GFS) create the main uncertainty: small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or cloud cover can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, which explains why 21°C-or-below, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C outcomes trade within a narrow 21–27% range.
Resolution depends on the official Paris observing station’s 24-hour minimum (typically recorded near dawn on July 13), so fresh model runs and Météo-France updates over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any re-pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$478End Date
Jul 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from Météo-France and extended models point to a persistent heatwave keeping overnight lows in Paris elevated well above July climatological norms of 14–16°C.** As of July 11, guidance for the July 12–13 night shows minimum temperatures most likely between 21–24°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities around those bins.
Key drivers include a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm-air advection from the south, combined with limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads in global models (ECMWF, GFS) create the main uncertainty: small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or cloud cover can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, which explains why 21°C-or-below, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C outcomes trade within a narrow 21–27% range.
Resolution depends on the official Paris observing station’s 24-hour minimum (typically recorded near dawn on July 13), so fresh model runs and Météo-France updates over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any re-pricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$478End Date
Jul 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from Météo-France and extended models point to a persistent heatwave keeping overnight lows in Paris elevated well above July climatological norms of 14–16°C.** As of July 11, guidance for the July 12–13 night shows minimum temperatures most likely between 21–24°C, aligning with the tightly clustered market-implied probabilities around those bins. Key drivers include a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and warm-air advection from the south, combined with limited nocturnal radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. Ensemble spreads in global models (ECMWF, GFS) create the main uncertainty: small differences in timing of any weak frontal passage or cloud cover can shift the exact minimum by 1–2°C, which explains why 21°C-or-below, 22°C, 23°C, and 24°C outcomes trade within a narrow 21–27% range. Resolution depends on the official Paris observing station’s 24-hour minimum (typically recorded near dawn on July 13), so fresh model runs and Météo-France updates over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any re-pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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