Recent forecasts from models and the Central Weather Administration point to possible showers, overcast skies, or typhoon-related moisture around July 11, which suppress maximum temperatures below typical July peaks of 32–33 °C in Taipei. These conditions explain why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 28–30 °C outcomes while giving 32 °C or higher only 17.6 percent. Key differentiating factors include cloud cover reducing solar heating, localized rainfall cooling surfaces, and steering winds that could limit warm-air advection, versus clearer skies that would allow stronger daytime warming amid high humidity and the urban heat island effect. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely shift consensus as precipitation timing and intensity become clearer.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on July 11?
Highest temperature in Taipei on July 11?
30°C 20.0%
29°C 20%
28°C 18%
31°C 16.5%
NEW
$14,482 Vol.
NEW
$14,482 Vol.
Jul 11, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
6%
27°C
9%
28°C
18%
29°C
20%
30°C
20%
31°C
17%
32°C or higher
12%
30°C 20.0%
29°C 20%
28°C 18%
31°C 16.5%
NEW
$14,482 Vol.
NEW
$14,482 Vol.
Jul 11, 2026
22°C or below
$537 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$285 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$834 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,655 Vol.
2%
26°C
$1,927 Vol.
6%
27°C
$2,369 Vol.
9%
28°C
$2,534 Vol.
18%
29°C
$1,460 Vol.
20%
30°C
$1,272 Vol.
20%
31°C
$622 Vol.
17%
32°C or higher
$987 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models and the Central Weather Administration point to possible showers, overcast skies, or typhoon-related moisture around July 11, which suppress maximum temperatures below typical July peaks of 32–33 °C in Taipei. These conditions explain why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 28–30 °C outcomes while giving 32 °C or higher only 17.6 percent. Key differentiating factors include cloud cover reducing solar heating, localized rainfall cooling surfaces, and steering winds that could limit warm-air advection, versus clearer skies that would allow stronger daytime warming amid high humidity and the urban heat island effect. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely shift consensus as precipitation timing and intensity become clearer.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$14,482End Date
Jul 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models and the Central Weather Administration point to possible showers, overcast skies, or typhoon-related moisture around July 11, which suppress maximum temperatures below typical July peaks of 32–33 °C in Taipei. These conditions explain why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 28–30 °C outcomes while giving 32 °C or higher only 17.6 percent. Key differentiating factors include cloud cover reducing solar heating, localized rainfall cooling surfaces, and steering winds that could limit warm-air advection, versus clearer skies that would allow stronger daytime warming amid high humidity and the urban heat island effect. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely shift consensus as precipitation timing and intensity become clearer.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,482End Date
Jul 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models and the Central Weather Administration point to possible showers, overcast skies, or typhoon-related moisture around July 11, which suppress maximum temperatures below typical July peaks of 32–33 °C in Taipei. These conditions explain why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 28–30 °C outcomes while giving 32 °C or higher only 17.6 percent. Key differentiating factors include cloud cover reducing solar heating, localized rainfall cooling surfaces, and steering winds that could limit warm-air advection, versus clearer skies that would allow stronger daytime warming amid high humidity and the urban heat island effect. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely shift consensus as precipitation timing and intensity become clearer.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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