Current ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models place Seoul’s July 11 daytime high near 30–32 °C under lingering East Asian monsoon conditions. Moisture-laden southwesterly flow, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers introduce a roughly two-degree spread across runs, keeping trader probabilities tightly clustered around the 30 °C (20 %), 31 °C (24.5 %), and 32 °C (24 %) bins. A stronger ridge building from the Yellow Sea could push readings toward 33 °C or higher, while an approaching trough or heavier precipitation would favor the lower 29–30 °C outcomes. Historical early-July maxima cluster between 25–30 °C, providing climatological context but little resolution for the specific synoptic setup two days out. Updated KMA guidance and next model cycles remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on July 11?
Highest temperature in Seoul on July 11?
31°C 38%
30°C 30%
32°C 21%
29°C 7%
NEW
$15,047 Vol.
NEW
$15,047 Vol.
Jul 11, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29°C
7%
30°C
30%
31°C
38%
32°C
21%
33°C or higher
2%
31°C 38%
30°C 30%
32°C 21%
29°C 7%
NEW
$15,047 Vol.
NEW
$15,047 Vol.
Jul 11, 2026
23°C or below
$851 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$315 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$311 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,709 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,766 Vol.
1%
28°C
$1,463 Vol.
5%
29°C
$2,196 Vol.
7%
30°C
$636 Vol.
30%
31°C
$858 Vol.
38%
32°C
$1,868 Vol.
21%
33°C or higher
$3,073 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models place Seoul’s July 11 daytime high near 30–32 °C under lingering East Asian monsoon conditions. Moisture-laden southwesterly flow, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers introduce a roughly two-degree spread across runs, keeping trader probabilities tightly clustered around the 30 °C (20 %), 31 °C (24.5 %), and 32 °C (24 %) bins. A stronger ridge building from the Yellow Sea could push readings toward 33 °C or higher, while an approaching trough or heavier precipitation would favor the lower 29–30 °C outcomes. Historical early-July maxima cluster between 25–30 °C, providing climatological context but little resolution for the specific synoptic setup two days out. Updated KMA guidance and next model cycles remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$15,047End Date
Jul 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models place Seoul’s July 11 daytime high near 30–32 °C under lingering East Asian monsoon conditions. Moisture-laden southwesterly flow, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers introduce a roughly two-degree spread across runs, keeping trader probabilities tightly clustered around the 30 °C (20 %), 31 °C (24.5 %), and 32 °C (24 %) bins. A stronger ridge building from the Yellow Sea could push readings toward 33 °C or higher, while an approaching trough or heavier precipitation would favor the lower 29–30 °C outcomes. Historical early-July maxima cluster between 25–30 °C, providing climatological context but little resolution for the specific synoptic setup two days out. Updated KMA guidance and next model cycles remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,047End Date
Jul 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models place Seoul’s July 11 daytime high near 30–32 °C under lingering East Asian monsoon conditions. Moisture-laden southwesterly flow, variable cloud cover, and scattered showers introduce a roughly two-degree spread across runs, keeping trader probabilities tightly clustered around the 30 °C (20 %), 31 °C (24.5 %), and 32 °C (24 %) bins. A stronger ridge building from the Yellow Sea could push readings toward 33 °C or higher, while an approaching trough or heavier precipitation would favor the lower 29–30 °C outcomes. Historical early-July maxima cluster between 25–30 °C, providing climatological context but little resolution for the specific synoptic setup two days out. Updated KMA guidance and next model cycles remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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