Trader consensus clusters around 31–32°C for Shanghai’s July 11 high, reflecting the latest ensemble model runs from global and regional centers that project daytime maxima in this narrow band under persistent subtropical high pressure. Early-July conditions in the Yangtze River Delta typically feature humid air masses with limited diurnal cooling, urban heat-island effects at official stations, and modest variability from any weak convective cells or steering-flow adjustments. Historical analogs and July climatology center near 31°C, while current model spread supports the tight probability distribution across 30–33°C outcomes; fresh guidance updates over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution criteria tied to the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at the reference meteorological site.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on July 11?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 11?
31°C 36%
32°C 28.8%
30°C 21%
29°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 11, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
7%
30°C
21%
31°C
36%
32°C
29%
33°C
6%
34°C
2%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 36%
32°C 28.8%
30°C 21%
29°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 11, 2026
26°C or below
$285 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$370 Vol.
1%
28°C
$471 Vol.
3%
29°C
$442 Vol.
7%
30°C
$871 Vol.
21%
31°C
$893 Vol.
36%
32°C
$560 Vol.
29%
33°C
$1,727 Vol.
6%
34°C
$728 Vol.
2%
35°C
$1,088 Vol.
1%
36°C or higher
$1,993 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus clusters around 31–32°C for Shanghai’s July 11 high, reflecting the latest ensemble model runs from global and regional centers that project daytime maxima in this narrow band under persistent subtropical high pressure. Early-July conditions in the Yangtze River Delta typically feature humid air masses with limited diurnal cooling, urban heat-island effects at official stations, and modest variability from any weak convective cells or steering-flow adjustments. Historical analogs and July climatology center near 31°C, while current model spread supports the tight probability distribution across 30–33°C outcomes; fresh guidance updates over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution criteria tied to the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at the reference meteorological site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$9,427End Date
Jul 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus clusters around 31–32°C for Shanghai’s July 11 high, reflecting the latest ensemble model runs from global and regional centers that project daytime maxima in this narrow band under persistent subtropical high pressure. Early-July conditions in the Yangtze River Delta typically feature humid air masses with limited diurnal cooling, urban heat-island effects at official stations, and modest variability from any weak convective cells or steering-flow adjustments. Historical analogs and July climatology center near 31°C, while current model spread supports the tight probability distribution across 30–33°C outcomes; fresh guidance updates over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution criteria tied to the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at the reference meteorological site.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,427End Date
Jul 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters around 31–32°C for Shanghai’s July 11 high, reflecting the latest ensemble model runs from global and regional centers that project daytime maxima in this narrow band under persistent subtropical high pressure. Early-July conditions in the Yangtze River Delta typically feature humid air masses with limited diurnal cooling, urban heat-island effects at official stations, and modest variability from any weak convective cells or steering-flow adjustments. Historical analogs and July climatology center near 31°C, while current model spread supports the tight probability distribution across 30–33°C outcomes; fresh guidance updates over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution criteria tied to the precise 24-hour maximum recorded at the reference meteorological site.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions