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icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11?

icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11?

Jul 9

Jul 10

Jul 11

Jul 9

Jul 10

Jul 11

34°C 34%

33°C 27%

35°C 23%

32°C 8%

Polymarket
NEW

$22,650 Vol.

34°C 34%

33°C 27%

35°C 23%

32°C 8%

Polymarket
NEW

$22,650 Vol.

29°C or below

$4,641 Vol.

<1%

30°C

$3,666 Vol.

<1%

31°C

$1,652 Vol.

1%

32°C

$1,749 Vol.

8%

33°C

$1,984 Vol.

27%

34°C

$1,693 Vol.

34%

35°C

$2,533 Vol.

23%

36°C

$969 Vol.

7%

37°C

$779 Vol.

3%

38°C

$589 Vol.

1%

39°C or higher

$2,394 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and other models point to a maximum temperature of 32–35°C on July 11, driven by typical midsummer subtropical conditions with high humidity, weak steering winds, and variable afternoon convection. Recent seasonal guidance indicates normal to above-normal temperatures for July–September 2026 amid ongoing regional warming trends. Key variables differentiating 33°C versus 35°C outcomes include the timing and extent of cloud cover or showers, which can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C, versus clearer skies allowing stronger insolation. Current model consensus and live trader positioning reflect this narrow uncertainty band ahead of updated short-range guidance expected within 48 hours.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$22,650
End Date
Jul 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and other models point to a maximum temperature of 32–35°C on July 11, driven by typical midsummer subtropical conditions with high humidity, weak steering winds, and variable afternoon convection. Recent seasonal guidance indicates normal to above-normal temperatures for July–September 2026 amid ongoing regional warming trends. Key variables differentiating 33°C versus 35°C outcomes include the timing and extent of cloud cover or showers, which can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C, versus clearer skies allowing stronger insolation. Current model consensus and live trader positioning reflect this narrow uncertainty band ahead of updated short-range guidance expected within 48 hours.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$22,650
End Date
Jul 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "34°C" at 34%, followed by "33°C" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11?" has generated $22.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11?" is "34°C" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "33°C" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 11?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.