**Latest numerical weather prediction guidance from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, together with AEMET’s official forecast, places Madrid’s maximum on 11 July near 37–38 °C.** Clear skies, strong daytime insolation under a persistent subtropical ridge, and light southerly or calm winds are expected to allow efficient boundary-layer heating, while the city’s urban heat-island effect adds 1–2 °C relative to surrounding rural stations. Ensemble spread remains modest at the 48–72-hour range, supporting the market’s concentration on the 37 °C and 38 °C bins; any late-model shift toward slightly stronger subsidence or reduced cloud cover could push probabilities toward 39 °C, whereas an earlier sea-breeze intrusion or increased low-level moisture would favor the lower side of the distribution. Updated high-resolution runs and the next AEMET bulletin are the next key data points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on July 11?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 11?
38°C 51%
39°C 28%
37°C 16%
36°C 3.7%
NEW
$11,995 Vol.
NEW
$11,995 Vol.
Jul 11, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
4%
37°C
16%
38°C
51%
39°C
28%
40°C
3%
41°C
1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
38°C 51%
39°C 28%
37°C 16%
36°C 3.7%
NEW
$11,995 Vol.
NEW
$11,995 Vol.
Jul 11, 2026
33°C or below
$596 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$405 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$381 Vol.
1%
36°C
$611 Vol.
4%
37°C
$2,429 Vol.
16%
38°C
$1,123 Vol.
51%
39°C
$2,275 Vol.
28%
40°C
$772 Vol.
3%
41°C
$394 Vol.
1%
42°C
$1,405 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$1,606 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction guidance from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, together with AEMET’s official forecast, places Madrid’s maximum on 11 July near 37–38 °C.**
Clear skies, strong daytime insolation under a persistent subtropical ridge, and light southerly or calm winds are expected to allow efficient boundary-layer heating, while the city’s urban heat-island effect adds 1–2 °C relative to surrounding rural stations. Ensemble spread remains modest at the 48–72-hour range, supporting the market’s concentration on the 37 °C and 38 °C bins; any late-model shift toward slightly stronger subsidence or reduced cloud cover could push probabilities toward 39 °C, whereas an earlier sea-breeze intrusion or increased low-level moisture would favor the lower side of the distribution. Updated high-resolution runs and the next AEMET bulletin are the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$11,995End Date
Jul 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest numerical weather prediction guidance from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, together with AEMET’s official forecast, places Madrid’s maximum on 11 July near 37–38 °C.**
Clear skies, strong daytime insolation under a persistent subtropical ridge, and light southerly or calm winds are expected to allow efficient boundary-layer heating, while the city’s urban heat-island effect adds 1–2 °C relative to surrounding rural stations. Ensemble spread remains modest at the 48–72-hour range, supporting the market’s concentration on the 37 °C and 38 °C bins; any late-model shift toward slightly stronger subsidence or reduced cloud cover could push probabilities toward 39 °C, whereas an earlier sea-breeze intrusion or increased low-level moisture would favor the lower side of the distribution. Updated high-resolution runs and the next AEMET bulletin are the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,995End Date
Jul 11, 2026Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest numerical weather prediction guidance from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, together with AEMET’s official forecast, places Madrid’s maximum on 11 July near 37–38 °C.** Clear skies, strong daytime insolation under a persistent subtropical ridge, and light southerly or calm winds are expected to allow efficient boundary-layer heating, while the city’s urban heat-island effect adds 1–2 °C relative to surrounding rural stations. Ensemble spread remains modest at the 48–72-hour range, supporting the market’s concentration on the 37 °C and 38 °C bins; any late-model shift toward slightly stronger subsidence or reduced cloud cover could push probabilities toward 39 °C, whereas an earlier sea-breeze intrusion or increased low-level moisture would favor the lower side of the distribution. Updated high-resolution runs and the next AEMET bulletin are the next key data points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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