Recent PAGASA forecasts point to a July 15 high near 33°C in Manila under southwest monsoon influence, with 40% rain chance and partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 32–34°C, reflecting typical July averages of 31–32°C moderated by high humidity, frequent convective showers, and variable cloud cover that curbs peak solar heating. Urban heat island effects and wind patterns from the habagat can push localized maxima slightly higher or suppress them via afternoon thunderstorms, creating the observed uncertainty. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely refine resolution criteria around the daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on July 15?
Highest temperature in Manila on July 15?
33°C 47%
34°C 24%
32°C 19%
35°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Jul 15, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32°C
19%
33°C
47%
34°C
24%
35°C
6%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
33°C 47%
34°C 24%
32°C 19%
35°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Jul 15, 2026
27°C or below
$300 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$202 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$339 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$325 Vol.
1%
31°C
$854 Vol.
2%
32°C
$850 Vol.
19%
33°C
$763 Vol.
47%
34°C
$1,574 Vol.
24%
35°C
$262 Vol.
6%
36°C
$381 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$234 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts point to a July 15 high near 33°C in Manila under southwest monsoon influence, with 40% rain chance and partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 32–34°C, reflecting typical July averages of 31–32°C moderated by high humidity, frequent convective showers, and variable cloud cover that curbs peak solar heating. Urban heat island effects and wind patterns from the habagat can push localized maxima slightly higher or suppress them via afternoon thunderstorms, creating the observed uncertainty. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely refine resolution criteria around the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$6,084End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts point to a July 15 high near 33°C in Manila under southwest monsoon influence, with 40% rain chance and partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 32–34°C, reflecting typical July averages of 31–32°C moderated by high humidity, frequent convective showers, and variable cloud cover that curbs peak solar heating. Urban heat island effects and wind patterns from the habagat can push localized maxima slightly higher or suppress them via afternoon thunderstorms, creating the observed uncertainty. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely refine resolution criteria around the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,084End Date
Jul 15, 2026Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent PAGASA forecasts point to a July 15 high near 33°C in Manila under southwest monsoon influence, with 40% rain chance and partly cloudy skies. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 32–34°C, reflecting typical July averages of 31–32°C moderated by high humidity, frequent convective showers, and variable cloud cover that curbs peak solar heating. Urban heat island effects and wind patterns from the habagat can push localized maxima slightly higher or suppress them via afternoon thunderstorms, creating the observed uncertainty. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours will likely refine resolution criteria around the daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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