**Current forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a daytime maximum near 14°C for Wellington on July 14, 2026, under a light northerly flow pattern that favors slightly milder conditions than the July climatological average of roughly 12°C.** This positions the 14°C and 15°C outcomes as the clear market leaders, with combined implied probability exceeding 95%. July represents peak Southern Hemisphere winter, when persistent westerly or southerly winds channeled through Cook Strait typically keep daily highs clustered between 11–13°C; deviations upward occur mainly with transient northerly or northwesterly flows that advect warmer maritime air from subtropical regions. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across the lower North Island, consistent with the narrow 1–2°C spread dominating trader consensus. Recent analogous markets (e.g., July 7 resolving exactly at 13°C and July 12 forecasts centering on 11–12°C) demonstrate how quickly updated model runs and official MetService guidance shift probabilities, with the current 14°C forecast anchoring the tight 14–15°C market. Model consensus remains the primary near-term driver, though any late shift in steering patterns or increased cloud cover could nudge the final maximum within the narrow band traders currently price.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on July 14?
Highest temperature in Wellington on July 14?
15°C 88%
16°C 13.7%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
NEW
$68,710 Vol.
NEW
$68,710 Vol.
Jul 14, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
88%
16°C
14%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
15°C 88%
16°C 13.7%
9°C or below <1%
10°C <1%
NEW
$68,710 Vol.
NEW
$68,710 Vol.
Jul 14, 2026
9°C or below
$770 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$353 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$1,647 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,781 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$5,966 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$28,810 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$12,461 Vol.
88%
16°C
$10,477 Vol.
14%
17°C
$5,338 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$614 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$492 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a daytime maximum near 14°C for Wellington on July 14, 2026, under a light northerly flow pattern that favors slightly milder conditions than the July climatological average of roughly 12°C.**
This positions the 14°C and 15°C outcomes as the clear market leaders, with combined implied probability exceeding 95%. July represents peak Southern Hemisphere winter, when persistent westerly or southerly winds channeled through Cook Strait typically keep daily highs clustered between 11–13°C; deviations upward occur mainly with transient northerly or northwesterly flows that advect warmer maritime air from subtropical regions.
NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across the lower North Island, consistent with the narrow 1–2°C spread dominating trader consensus. Recent analogous markets (e.g., July 7 resolving exactly at 13°C and July 12 forecasts centering on 11–12°C) demonstrate how quickly updated model runs and official MetService guidance shift probabilities, with the current 14°C forecast anchoring the tight 14–15°C market.
Model consensus remains the primary near-term driver, though any late shift in steering patterns or increased cloud cover could nudge the final maximum within the narrow band traders currently price.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$68,710End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a daytime maximum near 14°C for Wellington on July 14, 2026, under a light northerly flow pattern that favors slightly milder conditions than the July climatological average of roughly 12°C.**
This positions the 14°C and 15°C outcomes as the clear market leaders, with combined implied probability exceeding 95%. July represents peak Southern Hemisphere winter, when persistent westerly or southerly winds channeled through Cook Strait typically keep daily highs clustered between 11–13°C; deviations upward occur mainly with transient northerly or northwesterly flows that advect warmer maritime air from subtropical regions.
NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across the lower North Island, consistent with the narrow 1–2°C spread dominating trader consensus. Recent analogous markets (e.g., July 7 resolving exactly at 13°C and July 12 forecasts centering on 11–12°C) demonstrate how quickly updated model runs and official MetService guidance shift probabilities, with the current 14°C forecast anchoring the tight 14–15°C market.
Model consensus remains the primary near-term driver, though any late shift in steering patterns or increased cloud cover could nudge the final maximum within the narrow band traders currently price.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$68,710End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from MetService and international models indicate a daytime maximum near 14°C for Wellington on July 14, 2026, under a light northerly flow pattern that favors slightly milder conditions than the July climatological average of roughly 12°C.** This positions the 14°C and 15°C outcomes as the clear market leaders, with combined implied probability exceeding 95%. July represents peak Southern Hemisphere winter, when persistent westerly or southerly winds channeled through Cook Strait typically keep daily highs clustered between 11–13°C; deviations upward occur mainly with transient northerly or northwesterly flows that advect warmer maritime air from subtropical regions. NIWA’s May–July seasonal outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across the lower North Island, consistent with the narrow 1–2°C spread dominating trader consensus. Recent analogous markets (e.g., July 7 resolving exactly at 13°C and July 12 forecasts centering on 11–12°C) demonstrate how quickly updated model runs and official MetService guidance shift probabilities, with the current 14°C forecast anchoring the tight 14–15°C market. Model consensus remains the primary near-term driver, though any late shift in steering patterns or increased cloud cover could nudge the final maximum within the narrow band traders currently price.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions