**Trader sentiment for São Paulo’s July 14 maximum temperature clusters tightly around 17–19°C because ensemble guidance from INMET, ECMWF, and GFS places the most likely afternoon peak near the lower end of the July climatological range of roughly 22°C.** Recent early-July warm spells that produced 24–27°C have given way to cooler subtropical high pressure and drier air, reducing insolation and boundary-layer mixing. Small differences among the leading outcomes hinge on forecast details such as cloud-cover timing, which modulates daytime heating, and any subtle southerly flow that could limit the high by a degree or two. Light winds and clear-to-partly-cloudy conditions expected under the current regime keep the spread narrow, with traders weighting the 18°C bin highest while acknowledging that last-minute model shifts in surface energy balance or frontal timing could easily move the verified INMET observation within the 17–19°C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 14?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 14?
18°C 49%
17°C 30%
19°C 18%
16°C 4.0%
NEW
$12,518 Vol.
NEW
$12,518 Vol.
Jul 14, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
4%
17°C
30%
18°C
49%
19°C
18%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
1%
18°C 49%
17°C 30%
19°C 18%
16°C 4.0%
NEW
$12,518 Vol.
NEW
$12,518 Vol.
Jul 14, 2026
12°C or below
$6,085 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$966 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$427 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$328 Vol.
1%
16°C
$393 Vol.
4%
17°C
$836 Vol.
30%
18°C
$638 Vol.
49%
19°C
$1,074 Vol.
18%
20°C
$826 Vol.
1%
21°C
$720 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$226 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for São Paulo’s July 14 maximum temperature clusters tightly around 17–19°C because ensemble guidance from INMET, ECMWF, and GFS places the most likely afternoon peak near the lower end of the July climatological range of roughly 22°C.** Recent early-July warm spells that produced 24–27°C have given way to cooler subtropical high pressure and drier air, reducing insolation and boundary-layer mixing. Small differences among the leading outcomes hinge on forecast details such as cloud-cover timing, which modulates daytime heating, and any subtle southerly flow that could limit the high by a degree or two. Light winds and clear-to-partly-cloudy conditions expected under the current regime keep the spread narrow, with traders weighting the 18°C bin highest while acknowledging that last-minute model shifts in surface energy balance or frontal timing could easily move the verified INMET observation within the 17–19°C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 12, 2026, 9:01 PM ET
Volume
$12,518End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 9:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for São Paulo’s July 14 maximum temperature clusters tightly around 17–19°C because ensemble guidance from INMET, ECMWF, and GFS places the most likely afternoon peak near the lower end of the July climatological range of roughly 22°C.** Recent early-July warm spells that produced 24–27°C have given way to cooler subtropical high pressure and drier air, reducing insolation and boundary-layer mixing. Small differences among the leading outcomes hinge on forecast details such as cloud-cover timing, which modulates daytime heating, and any subtle southerly flow that could limit the high by a degree or two. Light winds and clear-to-partly-cloudy conditions expected under the current regime keep the spread narrow, with traders weighting the 18°C bin highest while acknowledging that last-minute model shifts in surface energy balance or frontal timing could easily move the verified INMET observation within the 17–19°C band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,518End Date
Jul 14, 2026Market Opened
Jul 12, 2026, 9:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for São Paulo’s July 14 maximum temperature clusters tightly around 17–19°C because ensemble guidance from INMET, ECMWF, and GFS places the most likely afternoon peak near the lower end of the July climatological range of roughly 22°C.** Recent early-July warm spells that produced 24–27°C have given way to cooler subtropical high pressure and drier air, reducing insolation and boundary-layer mixing. Small differences among the leading outcomes hinge on forecast details such as cloud-cover timing, which modulates daytime heating, and any subtle southerly flow that could limit the high by a degree or two. Light winds and clear-to-partly-cloudy conditions expected under the current regime keep the spread narrow, with traders weighting the 18°C bin highest while acknowledging that last-minute model shifts in surface energy balance or frontal timing could easily move the verified INMET observation within the 17–19°C band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions