**Recent northeast monsoon influence and moderating winds are the main drivers positioning 29–30°C as the leading outcomes for Taipei’s October 8 high.** Official Central Weather Administration guidance and multiple forecast models show daytime highs in the 26–29°C range for northern Taiwan on the 8th, with partly cloudy skies, light easterly flow, and limited moisture supporting modest daytime warming after cooler mornings. Historical early-October baselines near 28–29°C and the absence of strong cooling signals or significant precipitation have kept probabilities concentrated around these values, with traders assigning combined implied odds exceeding 80% to 29–30°C. Minor model spread on cloud cover and wind strength creates the small but non-zero tail risk for 28°C or 31°C. Updated model runs and any late-day observational adjustments from the CWA will be the next key inputs before resolution.