Wellington's June 17 maximum temperature market reflects tight trader consensus around near-average winter conditions, with 14°C and 15°C each holding roughly 42% implied probability. Official guidance from MetService and NIWA points to a high near 13°C under typical cool-season southerly or westerly flow, consistent with the 1991-2020 climatological mean of 12-13°C. The narrow spread between leading outcomes stems from ensemble forecast uncertainty in low-level wind direction through Cook Strait and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage, which can shift daytime maxima by 1-2°C. Northerly advection or reduced cloud cover would favor the 15°C outcome, while an earlier southerly change would cap readings closer to 13-14°C. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely drive the final resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Wellington am 17. Juni?
Höchste Temperatur in Wellington am 17. Juni?
14°C 43%
15°C 42%
16°C 6%
13°C 5%
NEU
NEU
17. Juni 2026
9°C oder darunter
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
5%
14°C
43%
15°C
42%
16°C
6%
17°C
2%
18°C
2%
19°C oder höher
<1%
14°C 43%
15°C 42%
16°C 6%
13°C 5%
NEU
NEU
17. Juni 2026
9°C oder darunter
$5 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$15 Vol.
1%
12°C
$0 Vol.
2%
13°C
$34 Vol.
5%
14°C
$334 Vol.
43%
15°C
$175 Vol.
42%
16°C
$482 Vol.
6%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C oder höher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's June 17 maximum temperature market reflects tight trader consensus around near-average winter conditions, with 14°C and 15°C each holding roughly 42% implied probability. Official guidance from MetService and NIWA points to a high near 13°C under typical cool-season southerly or westerly flow, consistent with the 1991-2020 climatological mean of 12-13°C. The narrow spread between leading outcomes stems from ensemble forecast uncertainty in low-level wind direction through Cook Strait and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage, which can shift daytime maxima by 1-2°C. Northerly advection or reduced cloud cover would favor the 15°C outcome, while an earlier southerly change would cap readings closer to 13-14°C. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely drive the final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volumen
$692Enddatum
17. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's June 17 maximum temperature market reflects tight trader consensus around near-average winter conditions, with 14°C and 15°C each holding roughly 42% implied probability. Official guidance from MetService and NIWA points to a high near 13°C under typical cool-season southerly or westerly flow, consistent with the 1991-2020 climatological mean of 12-13°C. The narrow spread between leading outcomes stems from ensemble forecast uncertainty in low-level wind direction through Cook Strait and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage, which can shift daytime maxima by 1-2°C. Northerly advection or reduced cloud cover would favor the 15°C outcome, while an earlier southerly change would cap readings closer to 13-14°C. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely drive the final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$692Enddatum
17. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wellington's June 17 maximum temperature market reflects tight trader consensus around near-average winter conditions, with 14°C and 15°C each holding roughly 42% implied probability. Official guidance from MetService and NIWA points to a high near 13°C under typical cool-season southerly or westerly flow, consistent with the 1991-2020 climatological mean of 12-13°C. The narrow spread between leading outcomes stems from ensemble forecast uncertainty in low-level wind direction through Cook Strait and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage, which can shift daytime maxima by 1-2°C. Northerly advection or reduced cloud cover would favor the 15°C outcome, while an earlier southerly change would cap readings closer to 13-14°C. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely drive the final resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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