Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs, including ECMWF, converge on a Madrid maximum near 31–32°C for June 15, anchoring the tight 33–40% market split. Subtle differences in Saharan air-mass advection, afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth, and local wind speeds at the Retiro reference station determine whether the peak settles at the lower or upper end of that narrow band. Absent strong synoptic forcing or heat-wave conditions, forecast uncertainty remains elevated, with small revisions in the next 24-hour model cycle or observational updates capable of shifting probability between the two leading outcomes while keeping tails below 2%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Madrid on June 15?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 15?
32°C 41%
31°C 32%
33°C 11.3%
30°C 8%
NEU
$16,367 Vol.
NEU
$16,367 Vol.
15. Juni 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
8%
31°C
32%
32°C
41%
33°C
11%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 41%
31°C 32%
33°C 11.3%
30°C 8%
NEU
$16,367 Vol.
NEU
$16,367 Vol.
15. Juni 2026
27°C or below
$414 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,627 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,887 Vol.
1%
30°C
$1,984 Vol.
8%
31°C
$1,456 Vol.
32%
32°C
$1,870 Vol.
41%
33°C
$2,197 Vol.
11%
34°C
$2,924 Vol.
1%
35°C
$1,101 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$333 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$706 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs, including ECMWF, converge on a Madrid maximum near 31–32°C for June 15, anchoring the tight 33–40% market split. Subtle differences in Saharan air-mass advection, afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth, and local wind speeds at the Retiro reference station determine whether the peak settles at the lower or upper end of that narrow band. Absent strong synoptic forcing or heat-wave conditions, forecast uncertainty remains elevated, with small revisions in the next 24-hour model cycle or observational updates capable of shifting probability between the two leading outcomes while keeping tails below 2%.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 13, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volumen
$16,367Enddatum
15. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 13, 2026, 12:10 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs, including ECMWF, converge on a Madrid maximum near 31–32°C for June 15, anchoring the tight 33–40% market split. Subtle differences in Saharan air-mass advection, afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth, and local wind speeds at the Retiro reference station determine whether the peak settles at the lower or upper end of that narrow band. Absent strong synoptic forcing or heat-wave conditions, forecast uncertainty remains elevated, with small revisions in the next 24-hour model cycle or observational updates capable of shifting probability between the two leading outcomes while keeping tails below 2%.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$16,367Enddatum
15. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 13, 2026, 12:10 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AEMET guidance and ensemble model runs, including ECMWF, converge on a Madrid maximum near 31–32°C for June 15, anchoring the tight 33–40% market split. Subtle differences in Saharan air-mass advection, afternoon boundary-layer mixing depth, and local wind speeds at the Retiro reference station determine whether the peak settles at the lower or upper end of that narrow band. Absent strong synoptic forcing or heat-wave conditions, forecast uncertainty remains elevated, with small revisions in the next 24-hour model cycle or observational updates capable of shifting probability between the two leading outcomes while keeping tails below 2%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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