Current forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate Chengdu will reach a daily maximum of 33°C on June 14 under partly sunny conditions with light easterly flow and typical early-summer humidity, aligning with the market's 98.5% implied probability on that exact outcome. Historical June climatology for the region shows average highs of 28–30°C, with recent model consensus and observed trends supporting a modest warm anomaly driven by stable high-pressure influence rather than extreme heat. The strong trader consensus reflects aggregated real-money assessment of official temperature data, which resolves on verified station readings. Scenarios that could shift resolution include rapid afternoon cloud development suppressing solar heating or a brief clearing trend allowing a 1°C overshoot, though both appear low-probability given the latest guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Chengdu on June 14?
33°C 98.5%
34°C 3.5%
35°C <1%
36°C <1%
$50,278 Vol.
$50,278 Vol.
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
99%
34°C
4%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
33°C 98.5%
34°C 3.5%
35°C <1%
36°C <1%
$50,278 Vol.
$50,278 Vol.
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
99%
34°C
4%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 12, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from meteorological agencies indicate Chengdu will reach a daily maximum of 33°C on June 14 under partly sunny conditions with light easterly flow and typical early-summer humidity, aligning with the market's 98.5% implied probability on that exact outcome. Historical June climatology for the region shows average highs of 28–30°C, with recent model consensus and observed trends supporting a modest warm anomaly driven by stable high-pressure influence rather than extreme heat. The strong trader consensus reflects aggregated real-money assessment of official temperature data, which resolves on verified station readings. Scenarios that could shift resolution include rapid afternoon cloud development suppressing solar heating or a brief clearing trend allowing a 1°C overshoot, though both appear low-probability given the latest guidance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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