**Trader consensus has locked onto 26°C as the official daily maximum temperature for Tokyo on June 14, 2026, at essentially 100% implied probability.** This positioning reflects alignment between short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and supporting models, which consistently project a high near the mid-June climatological normal of 26.1°C. Early-summer conditions under the expanding Pacific High, combined with typical humidity and limited overnight radiational cooling, support this outcome. Recent overnight forecast updates have further reinforced the consensus, prompting sharp market repricing as model runs converged on a precise 26°C reading at official observation sites. Realistic challenges include late revisions from updated JMA guidance due to shifts in cloud cover, wind patterns, or localized urban heat-island effects that could push the recorded maximum slightly higher or lower. Measurement thresholds at the primary Tokyo station or minor timing differences in peak heating could also introduce narrow uncertainty, though current data make significant deviations unlikely before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Tokyo on June 14?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on June 14?
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$87,453 Vol.
$87,453 Vol.
14. Juni 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
100%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$87,453 Vol.
$87,453 Vol.
14. Juni 2026
21°C or below
$431 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$421 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$4,873 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$6,546 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$11,622 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$21,837 Vol.
100%
27°C
$9,943 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$12,036 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$7,193 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$9,296 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$3,271 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has locked onto 26°C as the official daily maximum temperature for Tokyo on June 14, 2026, at essentially 100% implied probability.** This positioning reflects alignment between short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and supporting models, which consistently project a high near the mid-June climatological normal of 26.1°C.
Early-summer conditions under the expanding Pacific High, combined with typical humidity and limited overnight radiational cooling, support this outcome. Recent overnight forecast updates have further reinforced the consensus, prompting sharp market repricing as model runs converged on a precise 26°C reading at official observation sites.
Realistic challenges include late revisions from updated JMA guidance due to shifts in cloud cover, wind patterns, or localized urban heat-island effects that could push the recorded maximum slightly higher or lower. Measurement thresholds at the primary Tokyo station or minor timing differences in peak heating could also introduce narrow uncertainty, though current data make significant deviations unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volumen
$87,453Enddatum
14. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has locked onto 26°C as the official daily maximum temperature for Tokyo on June 14, 2026, at essentially 100% implied probability.** This positioning reflects alignment between short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and supporting models, which consistently project a high near the mid-June climatological normal of 26.1°C.
Early-summer conditions under the expanding Pacific High, combined with typical humidity and limited overnight radiational cooling, support this outcome. Recent overnight forecast updates have further reinforced the consensus, prompting sharp market repricing as model runs converged on a precise 26°C reading at official observation sites.
Realistic challenges include late revisions from updated JMA guidance due to shifts in cloud cover, wind patterns, or localized urban heat-island effects that could push the recorded maximum slightly higher or lower. Measurement thresholds at the primary Tokyo station or minor timing differences in peak heating could also introduce narrow uncertainty, though current data make significant deviations unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$87,453Enddatum
14. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 12, 2026, 12:04 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus has locked onto 26°C as the official daily maximum temperature for Tokyo on June 14, 2026, at essentially 100% implied probability.** This positioning reflects alignment between short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and supporting models, which consistently project a high near the mid-June climatological normal of 26.1°C. Early-summer conditions under the expanding Pacific High, combined with typical humidity and limited overnight radiational cooling, support this outcome. Recent overnight forecast updates have further reinforced the consensus, prompting sharp market repricing as model runs converged on a precise 26°C reading at official observation sites. Realistic challenges include late revisions from updated JMA guidance due to shifts in cloud cover, wind patterns, or localized urban heat-island effects that could push the recorded maximum slightly higher or lower. Measurement thresholds at the primary Tokyo station or minor timing differences in peak heating could also introduce narrow uncertainty, though current data make significant deviations unlikely before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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