Current short-range forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC place Wuhan's July 4 maximum near 27–29°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and moderate humidity, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around those values. Model consensus reflects a transitional monsoon pattern with residual moisture from the plum-rain season suppressing full insolation, while steering flow keeps warmer air masses at bay. Small probability spreads among 26–30°C outcomes stem from typical ensemble spread in 48-hour temperature predictions—driven by uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon convection, and exact cloud cover—plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C variability. Historical July averages near 32°C provide context, yet near-term guidance favors the lower end of the climatological range. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for this daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wuhan on July 4?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 4?
28°C 27%
29°C 26%
27°C 21%
30°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Jul 4, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
3%
26°C
7%
27°C
21%
28°C
27%
29°C
26%
30°C
14%
31°C
5%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 27%
29°C 26%
27°C 21%
30°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Jul 4, 2026
23°C or below
$27 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$234 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$105 Vol.
3%
26°C
$27 Vol.
7%
27°C
$133 Vol.
21%
28°C
$5,898 Vol.
27%
29°C
$258 Vol.
26%
30°C
$99 Vol.
14%
31°C
$74 Vol.
5%
32°C
$160 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$31 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC place Wuhan's July 4 maximum near 27–29°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and moderate humidity, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around those values. Model consensus reflects a transitional monsoon pattern with residual moisture from the plum-rain season suppressing full insolation, while steering flow keeps warmer air masses at bay. Small probability spreads among 26–30°C outcomes stem from typical ensemble spread in 48-hour temperature predictions—driven by uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon convection, and exact cloud cover—plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C variability. Historical July averages near 32°C provide context, yet near-term guidance favors the lower end of the climatological range. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for this daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$7,046End Date
Jul 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC place Wuhan's July 4 maximum near 27–29°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and moderate humidity, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around those values. Model consensus reflects a transitional monsoon pattern with residual moisture from the plum-rain season suppressing full insolation, while steering flow keeps warmer air masses at bay. Small probability spreads among 26–30°C outcomes stem from typical ensemble spread in 48-hour temperature predictions—driven by uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon convection, and exact cloud cover—plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C variability. Historical July averages near 32°C provide context, yet near-term guidance favors the lower end of the climatological range. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for this daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,046End Date
Jul 4, 2026Market Opened
Jul 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and BBC place Wuhan's July 4 maximum near 27–29°C under partly cloudy skies with light winds and moderate humidity, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around those values. Model consensus reflects a transitional monsoon pattern with residual moisture from the plum-rain season suppressing full insolation, while steering flow keeps warmer air masses at bay. Small probability spreads among 26–30°C outcomes stem from typical ensemble spread in 48-hour temperature predictions—driven by uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, afternoon convection, and exact cloud cover—plus local urban heat-island effects that can add 1–2°C variability. Historical July averages near 32°C provide context, yet near-term guidance favors the lower end of the climatological range. Updated model runs over the next 24 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria for this daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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