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How long will ICEMAN be?

icon for How long will ICEMAN be?

How long will ICEMAN be?

80 - 90 minutes 39%

90+ minutes 38%

50 - 60 minutes 34%

60 - 70 minutes 34%

Polymarket
NEW

80 - 90 minutes 39%

90+ minutes 38%

50 - 60 minutes 34%

60 - 70 minutes 34%

Polymarket
NEW

<30 minutes

$723 Vol.

1%

30 - 40 minutes

$394 Vol.

5%

40 - 50 minutes

$38 Vol.

32%

50 - 60 minutes

$8 Vol.

34%

60 - 70 minutes

$8 Vol.

34%

70 - 80 minutes

$27 Vol.

29%

80 - 90 minutes

$13 Vol.

39%

90+ minutes

$46 Vol.

38%

Drake is expected to release his new album 'ICEMAN' in 2026. This market will resolve based on the length of 'ICEMAN'. The album length will be measured from the start of the first song to the end of the final song on the album once it is officially released in full. Officially released means that 'ICEMAN' is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the 'ICEMAN' project will count, regardless of potential name changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If 'ICEMAN' is not released by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. If these sources disagree, this market will resolve solely based on the length of the album as released on Spotify.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Drake's ninth studio album ICEMAN, due May 15, as a tight contest between 80–90 minutes (39.5% implied probability) and 50–60 minutes (36%), reflecting uncertainty amid the secretive rollout with no official tracklist, cover art, or previews disclosed just three days pre-release. Recent silence from Drake and his team—despite Episode 4 livestream set for May 14—has intensified speculation, pitting expectations of a sprawling, bar-heavy project akin to Scorpion (90+ minutes, 25 tracks) or For All the Dogs (85 minutes, 23 tracks) against rumors of a more concise post-beef effort like Honestly, Nevermind (46 minutes, 14 tracks). DJ Akademiks' May 7 claim of 20–26 tracks tilts toward longer runtimes at 70–90 minutes, but fake leaks and historical variety keep the field competitive ahead of streaming debut metrics.

Drake is expected to release his new album 'ICEMAN' in 2026.

This market will resolve based on the length of 'ICEMAN'.

The album length will be measured from the start of the first song to the end of the final song on the album once it is officially released in full.

Officially released means that 'ICEMAN' is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the 'ICEMAN' project will count, regardless of potential name changes.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If 'ICEMAN' is not released by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. If these sources disagree, this market will resolve solely based on the length of the album as released on Spotify.
Volume
$1,257
End Date
May 15, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 5:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Drake is expected to release his new album 'ICEMAN' in 2026. This market will resolve based on the length of 'ICEMAN'. The album length will be measured from the start of the first song to the end of the final song on the album once it is officially released in full. Officially released means that 'ICEMAN' is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the 'ICEMAN' project will count, regardless of potential name changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If 'ICEMAN' is not released by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. If these sources disagree, this market will resolve solely based on the length of the album as released on Spotify.
Drake is expected to release his new album 'ICEMAN' in 2026. This market will resolve based on the length of 'ICEMAN'. The album length will be measured from the start of the first song to the end of the final song on the album once it is officially released in full. Officially released means that 'ICEMAN' is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the 'ICEMAN' project will count, regardless of potential name changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If 'ICEMAN' is not released by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. If these sources disagree, this market will resolve solely based on the length of the album as released on Spotify.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Drake's ninth studio album ICEMAN, due May 15, as a tight contest between 80–90 minutes (39.5% implied probability) and 50–60 minutes (36%), reflecting uncertainty amid the secretive rollout with no official tracklist, cover art, or previews disclosed just three days pre-release. Recent silence from Drake and his team—despite Episode 4 livestream set for May 14—has intensified speculation, pitting expectations of a sprawling, bar-heavy project akin to Scorpion (90+ minutes, 25 tracks) or For All the Dogs (85 minutes, 23 tracks) against rumors of a more concise post-beef effort like Honestly, Nevermind (46 minutes, 14 tracks). DJ Akademiks' May 7 claim of 20–26 tracks tilts toward longer runtimes at 70–90 minutes, but fake leaks and historical variety keep the field competitive ahead of streaming debut metrics.

Drake is expected to release his new album 'ICEMAN' in 2026.

This market will resolve based on the length of 'ICEMAN'.

The album length will be measured from the start of the first song to the end of the final song on the album once it is officially released in full.

Officially released means that 'ICEMAN' is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the 'ICEMAN' project will count, regardless of potential name changes.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If 'ICEMAN' is not released by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. If these sources disagree, this market will resolve solely based on the length of the album as released on Spotify.
Volume
$1,257
End Date
May 15, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 23, 2026, 5:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Drake is expected to release his new album 'ICEMAN' in 2026. This market will resolve based on the length of 'ICEMAN'. The album length will be measured from the start of the first song to the end of the final song on the album once it is officially released in full. Officially released means that 'ICEMAN' is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the 'ICEMAN' project will count, regardless of potential name changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If 'ICEMAN' is not released by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. If these sources disagree, this market will resolve solely based on the length of the album as released on Spotify.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How long will ICEMAN be?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "80 - 90 minutes" at 39%, followed by "90+ minutes" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How long will ICEMAN be?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 23, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How long will ICEMAN be?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How long will ICEMAN be?" is "80 - 90 minutes" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "90+ minutes" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How long will ICEMAN be?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.