Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 (60% implied probability), driven by an exceptionally active season start per Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) data: 451 confirmed tornadoes by April 24—surpassing historical 1991–2020 averages through late spring—fueled by three major March outbreaks, the violent April 17–18 event (80 confirmed tornadoes), April 22–24 storms including an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma, and early May tornadoes like an EF2 in Kansas. Ample Gulf of Mexico moisture, persistent wind shear, and jet stream patterns have sustained supercell-favorable conditions in Tornado Alley. Peak May–June activity looms, with daily SPC outlooks and post-event surveys potentially refining the pace amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 63%
1150–1199 16.9%
1050–1099 3.2%
1100–1149 1.7%
$71,670 Vol.
$71,670 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
<1%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
3%
1100–1149
2%
1150–1199
16%
1200–1249
31%
1250+
60%
1250+ 63%
1150–1199 16.9%
1050–1099 3.2%
1100–1149 1.7%
$71,670 Vol.
$71,670 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$22,404 Vol.
<1%
950–999
$2,749 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$2,424 Vol.
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 Vol.
3%
1100–1149
$2,005 Vol.
2%
1150–1199
$2,452 Vol.
16%
1200–1249
$15,173 Vol.
31%
1250+
$16,622 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 (60% implied probability), driven by an exceptionally active season start per Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) data: 451 confirmed tornadoes by April 24—surpassing historical 1991–2020 averages through late spring—fueled by three major March outbreaks, the violent April 17–18 event (80 confirmed tornadoes), April 22–24 storms including an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma, and early May tornadoes like an EF2 in Kansas. Ample Gulf of Mexico moisture, persistent wind shear, and jet stream patterns have sustained supercell-favorable conditions in Tornado Alley. Peak May–June activity looms, with daily SPC outlooks and post-event surveys potentially refining the pace amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Market Opened: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$71,670End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 (60% implied probability), driven by an exceptionally active season start per Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) data: 451 confirmed tornadoes by April 24—surpassing historical 1991–2020 averages through late spring—fueled by three major March outbreaks, the violent April 17–18 event (80 confirmed tornadoes), April 22–24 storms including an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma, and early May tornadoes like an EF2 in Kansas. Ample Gulf of Mexico moisture, persistent wind shear, and jet stream patterns have sustained supercell-favorable conditions in Tornado Alley. Peak May–June activity looms, with daily SPC outlooks and post-event surveys potentially refining the pace amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$71,670End Date
Jan 10, 2027Market Opened
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 (60% implied probability), driven by an exceptionally active season start per Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) data: 451 confirmed tornadoes by April 24—surpassing historical 1991–2020 averages through late spring—fueled by three major March outbreaks, the violent April 17–18 event (80 confirmed tornadoes), April 22–24 storms including an EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma, and early May tornadoes like an EF2 in Kansas. Ample Gulf of Mexico moisture, persistent wind shear, and jet stream patterns have sustained supercell-favorable conditions in Tornado Alley. Peak May–June activity looms, with daily SPC outlooks and post-event surveys potentially refining the pace amid inherent forecasting uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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