President Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act amid immigration enforcement operations and protests, including in Los Angeles, Portland, Chicago, and Minneapolis following ICE incidents in January 2026. The administration has instead relied on other statutes like 10 U.S.C. § 12406 to federalize National Guard units, though the Supreme Court’s December 2025 ruling in Trump v. Illinois curtailed that approach. Internal debates, a tradition of narrow use, and risks of litigation have so far produced no formal invocation. Trader consensus reflects this pattern of restraint, with low implied probabilities for invocation by year-end despite midterm election pressures and ongoing domestic deployments that could prompt escalation.