Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability that President Trump will declare a national emergency over election interference, reflecting the absence of any official announcement or executive action despite earlier 2026 reports of allies circulating draft orders alleging foreign meddling in past elections. Trump has issued multiple emergency declarations this term for border security and disaster response, but none targeting election processes, amid legal concerns over federalizing state-run elections and potential court challenges. With 2026 midterms approaching, speculation persists on X and in media, yet no White House signals or primary statements indicate movement, underscoring traders' assessment of high political and constitutional barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$156,422 Vol.
$156,422 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$156,422 Vol.
$156,422 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability that President Trump will declare a national emergency over election interference, reflecting the absence of any official announcement or executive action despite earlier 2026 reports of allies circulating draft orders alleging foreign meddling in past elections. Trump has issued multiple emergency declarations this term for border security and disaster response, but none targeting election processes, amid legal concerns over federalizing state-run elections and potential court challenges. With 2026 midterms approaching, speculation persists on X and in media, yet no White House signals or primary statements indicate movement, underscoring traders' assessment of high political and constitutional barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 26, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Volume
$156,422End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability that President Trump will declare a national emergency over election interference, reflecting the absence of any official announcement or executive action despite earlier 2026 reports of allies circulating draft orders alleging foreign meddling in past elections. Trump has issued multiple emergency declarations this term for border security and disaster response, but none targeting election processes, amid legal concerns over federalizing state-run elections and potential court challenges. With 2026 midterms approaching, speculation persists on X and in media, yet no White House signals or primary statements indicate movement, underscoring traders' assessment of high political and constitutional barriers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$156,422End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 26, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability that President Trump will declare a national emergency over election interference, reflecting the absence of any official announcement or executive action despite earlier 2026 reports of allies circulating draft orders alleging foreign meddling in past elections. Trump has issued multiple emergency declarations this term for border security and disaster response, but none targeting election processes, amid legal concerns over federalizing state-run elections and potential court challenges. With 2026 midterms approaching, speculation persists on X and in media, yet no White House signals or primary statements indicate movement, underscoring traders' assessment of high political and constitutional barriers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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