Current ECMWF and GFS model consensus for Milan on September 28 points to clear, anticyclonic conditions with a minimum temperature near 15–17°C under light easterly flow and minimal cloud cover. This stable high-pressure regime, with dew points around 13°C and no incoming frontal systems, underpins trader emphasis on outcomes near or above 13°C while the elevated probability on 8°C or below reflects residual ensemble spread in boundary-layer cooling overnight. Official Italian meteorological updates and the next model cycles later today will refine the exact minimum, as small shifts in wind or humidity could adjust the low by 1–2°C before resolution.