Current forecasts from multiple models show Milan under stable high pressure with clear to partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds through September 29, supporting an overnight low in the 15–18°C range as radiative cooling occurs under seasonal late-summer conditions in the Po Valley. This aligns with climatological norms for the date and recent observations of mild nights, though urban heat-island effects and minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture could shift the exact minimum by a degree or two. The near-even market split between sub-9°C and 19°C+ outcomes reflects trader focus on tail risks from any unmodeled cold-air advection or clearer-than-expected skies versus warmer advection, with the 15°C bin capturing the highest single-outcome probability amid genuine short-term forecast uncertainty. Updated runs from agencies like the Italian Meteorological Service and ECMWF are expected before resolution.