Latest forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and ensemble models points to an overnight low in the upper 60s to low 70s for New York City on July 13, with limited radiational cooling expected under a warm, humid air mass and light southerly flow. High dew points near 65°F and possible residual cloud cover from upstream convection are suppressing temperature drops, consistent with the recent early-July heat pattern that produced a 74-75°F minimum on July 9. Traders assign the highest implied probability (30%) to the 70-71°F band because small variations in wind speed, boundary-layer mixing, or timing of any clearing can shift the exact minimum across the tightly grouped 66-73°F outcomes, while climatological averages near 68°F provide historical context for the current elevated readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on July 13?
Lowest temperature in NYC on July 13?
72-73°F 98.8%
70-71°F 1.3%
64-65°F <1%
59°F or below <1%
$11,630 Vol.
$11,630 Vol.
Jul 13, 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
99%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
72-73°F 98.8%
70-71°F 1.3%
64-65°F <1%
59°F or below <1%
$11,630 Vol.
$11,630 Vol.
Jul 13, 2026
59°F or below
$566 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$747 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$689 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$1,116 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$1,034 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$1,149 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$1,038 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$2,080 Vol.
99%
74-75°F
$2,047 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$684 Vol.
<1%
78°F or higher
$482 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and ensemble models points to an overnight low in the upper 60s to low 70s for New York City on July 13, with limited radiational cooling expected under a warm, humid air mass and light southerly flow. High dew points near 65°F and possible residual cloud cover from upstream convection are suppressing temperature drops, consistent with the recent early-July heat pattern that produced a 74-75°F minimum on July 9. Traders assign the highest implied probability (30%) to the 70-71°F band because small variations in wind speed, boundary-layer mixing, or timing of any clearing can shift the exact minimum across the tightly grouped 66-73°F outcomes, while climatological averages near 68°F provide historical context for the current elevated readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 11, 2026, 11:30 PM ET
Volume
$11,630End Date
Jul 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 11:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and ensemble models points to an overnight low in the upper 60s to low 70s for New York City on July 13, with limited radiational cooling expected under a warm, humid air mass and light southerly flow. High dew points near 65°F and possible residual cloud cover from upstream convection are suppressing temperature drops, consistent with the recent early-July heat pattern that produced a 74-75°F minimum on July 9. Traders assign the highest implied probability (30%) to the 70-71°F band because small variations in wind speed, boundary-layer mixing, or timing of any clearing can shift the exact minimum across the tightly grouped 66-73°F outcomes, while climatological averages near 68°F provide historical context for the current elevated readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,630End Date
Jul 13, 2026Market Opened
Jul 11, 2026, 11:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and ensemble models points to an overnight low in the upper 60s to low 70s for New York City on July 13, with limited radiational cooling expected under a warm, humid air mass and light southerly flow. High dew points near 65°F and possible residual cloud cover from upstream convection are suppressing temperature drops, consistent with the recent early-July heat pattern that produced a 74-75°F minimum on July 9. Traders assign the highest implied probability (30%) to the 70-71°F band because small variations in wind speed, boundary-layer mixing, or timing of any clearing can shift the exact minimum across the tightly grouped 66-73°F outcomes, while climatological averages near 68°F provide historical context for the current elevated readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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