Skip to main content
icon for Lowest temperature in NYC on July 8?

Lowest temperature in NYC on July 8?

icon for Lowest temperature in NYC on July 8?

Lowest temperature in NYC on July 8?

Jul 7

Jul 8

Jul 7

Jul 8

66-67°F 33%

68-69°F 27%

74°F or higher 15%

64-65°F 14%

Polymarket
NEW

66-67°F 33%

68-69°F 27%

74°F or higher 15%

64-65°F 14%

Polymarket
NEW

55°F or below

$15 Vol.

<1%

56-57°F

$15 Vol.

1%

58-59°F

$195 Vol.

3%

60-61°F

$135 Vol.

5%

62-63°F

$10 Vol.

4%

64-65°F

$50 Vol.

14%

66-67°F

$290 Vol.

33%

68-69°F

$19 Vol.

27%

70-71°F

$759 Vol.

7%

72-73°F

$189 Vol.

5%

74°F or higher

$155 Vol.

15%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to an overnight low near 66°F in New York City on July 8 amid moderating high pressure and light southwesterly flow, following several days of elevated minima in the upper 70s. Model consensus shows modest cooling from a passing disturbance and increased cloud cover, yet lingering humidity and urban heat-island effects keep warmer bins competitive. These conditions explain the market’s leading 74 °F-or-higher outcome at 46 % implied probability alongside strong support for the 64–67 °F ranges, as traders weigh the narrow window between ongoing warmth and forecast moderation before final NWS observations resolve the market.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,833
End Date
Jul 8, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 9:30 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to an overnight low near 66°F in New York City on July 8 amid moderating high pressure and light southwesterly flow, following several days of elevated minima in the upper 70s. Model consensus shows modest cooling from a passing disturbance and increased cloud cover, yet lingering humidity and urban heat-island effects keep warmer bins competitive. These conditions explain the market’s leading 74 °F-or-higher outcome at 46 % implied probability alongside strong support for the 64–67 °F ranges, as traders weigh the narrow window between ongoing warmth and forecast moderation before final NWS observations resolve the market.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Jul '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,833
End Date
Jul 8, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 9:30 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Related

icon for Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 8?

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 8?

33%
icon for Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 8?

Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 8?

46%
icon for Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 8?

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 8?

47%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in NYC on July 8?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "66-67°F" at 34%, followed by "68-69°F" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 34¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in NYC on July 8?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in NYC on July 8?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in NYC on July 8?" is "66-67°F" at 34%, meaning the market assigns a 34% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "68-69°F" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in NYC on July 8?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.