Persistent high pressure across southern England, combined with an ongoing heatwave featuring daytime maxima near 33°C, is suppressing radiative cooling and elevating overnight minimums in London. Met Office guidance currently projects a 21°C low for July 8 under light winds and mainly clear skies, with the urban heat island effect adding 2–4°C retention relative to rural baselines. Model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns or cloud cover through the period, though small shifts in wind speed or timing of any Atlantic moisture could allow greater cooling toward 18–19°C. Traders appear to balance this forecast against historical July climatology (typical lows 13–15°C) and residual uncertainty in precise station readings, keeping 17°C-or-below and 20°C outcomes nearly tied near 45–47% implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on July 8?
Lowest temperature in London on July 8?
20°C 27%
19°C 23%
17°C or below 22%
21°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Jul 8, 2026
17°C or below
22%
18°C
19%
19°C
23%
20°C
27%
21°C
21%
22°C
18%
23°C
18%
24°C
9%
25°C
2%
26°C
11%
27°C or higher
1%
20°C 27%
19°C 23%
17°C or below 22%
21°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Jul 8, 2026
17°C or below
$25 Vol.
22%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$0 Vol.
23%
20°C
$0 Vol.
27%
21°C
$0 Vol.
21%
22°C
$0 Vol.
18%
23°C
$0 Vol.
18%
24°C
$11 Vol.
9%
25°C
$27 Vol.
2%
26°C
$27 Vol.
11%
27°C or higher
$47 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure across southern England, combined with an ongoing heatwave featuring daytime maxima near 33°C, is suppressing radiative cooling and elevating overnight minimums in London. Met Office guidance currently projects a 21°C low for July 8 under light winds and mainly clear skies, with the urban heat island effect adding 2–4°C retention relative to rural baselines. Model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns or cloud cover through the period, though small shifts in wind speed or timing of any Atlantic moisture could allow greater cooling toward 18–19°C. Traders appear to balance this forecast against historical July climatology (typical lows 13–15°C) and residual uncertainty in precise station readings, keeping 17°C-or-below and 20°C outcomes nearly tied near 45–47% implied probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$136End Date
Jul 8, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure across southern England, combined with an ongoing heatwave featuring daytime maxima near 33°C, is suppressing radiative cooling and elevating overnight minimums in London. Met Office guidance currently projects a 21°C low for July 8 under light winds and mainly clear skies, with the urban heat island effect adding 2–4°C retention relative to rural baselines. Model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns or cloud cover through the period, though small shifts in wind speed or timing of any Atlantic moisture could allow greater cooling toward 18–19°C. Traders appear to balance this forecast against historical July climatology (typical lows 13–15°C) and residual uncertainty in precise station readings, keeping 17°C-or-below and 20°C outcomes nearly tied near 45–47% implied probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$136End Date
Jul 8, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure across southern England, combined with an ongoing heatwave featuring daytime maxima near 33°C, is suppressing radiative cooling and elevating overnight minimums in London. Met Office guidance currently projects a 21°C low for July 8 under light winds and mainly clear skies, with the urban heat island effect adding 2–4°C retention relative to rural baselines. Model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns or cloud cover through the period, though small shifts in wind speed or timing of any Atlantic moisture could allow greater cooling toward 18–19°C. Traders appear to balance this forecast against historical July climatology (typical lows 13–15°C) and residual uncertainty in precise station readings, keeping 17°C-or-below and 20°C outcomes nearly tied near 45–47% implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions