Recent short-range forecast models from European and American centers indicate Moscow will likely experience a cooler air mass on July 8, 2026, with daytime highs constrained by increased cloud cover, showers, and possible thundery activity that limit solar heating. This setup favors peak temperatures clustered around 20–22 °C—slightly below the month’s climatological average of roughly 23–24 °C—explaining why those three outcomes dominate market-implied odds. Key differentiating variables include the exact timing and intensity of precipitation, which can suppress maxima by several degrees through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation, versus any brief clearing that would allow stronger surface warming. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these details ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on July 8?
Highest temperature in Moscow on July 8?
21°C 27%
22°C 21%
20°C 19%
23°C 10.7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 8, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
11%
19°C
11%
20°C
19%
21°C
27%
22°C
21%
23°C
11%
24°C
11%
25°C
4%
26°C or higher
1%
21°C 27%
22°C 21%
20°C 19%
23°C 10.7%
NEW
NEW
Jul 8, 2026
16°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
17°C
$225 Vol.
1%
18°C
$0 Vol.
11%
19°C
$0 Vol.
11%
20°C
$0 Vol.
19%
21°C
$0 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
21%
23°C
$0 Vol.
11%
24°C
$0 Vol.
11%
25°C
$14 Vol.
4%
26°C or higher
$25 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from European and American centers indicate Moscow will likely experience a cooler air mass on July 8, 2026, with daytime highs constrained by increased cloud cover, showers, and possible thundery activity that limit solar heating. This setup favors peak temperatures clustered around 20–22 °C—slightly below the month’s climatological average of roughly 23–24 °C—explaining why those three outcomes dominate market-implied odds. Key differentiating variables include the exact timing and intensity of precipitation, which can suppress maxima by several degrees through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation, versus any brief clearing that would allow stronger surface warming. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these details ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$269End Date
Jul 8, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models from European and American centers indicate Moscow will likely experience a cooler air mass on July 8, 2026, with daytime highs constrained by increased cloud cover, showers, and possible thundery activity that limit solar heating. This setup favors peak temperatures clustered around 20–22 °C—slightly below the month’s climatological average of roughly 23–24 °C—explaining why those three outcomes dominate market-implied odds. Key differentiating variables include the exact timing and intensity of precipitation, which can suppress maxima by several degrees through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation, versus any brief clearing that would allow stronger surface warming. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these details ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$269End Date
Jul 8, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecast models from European and American centers indicate Moscow will likely experience a cooler air mass on July 8, 2026, with daytime highs constrained by increased cloud cover, showers, and possible thundery activity that limit solar heating. This setup favors peak temperatures clustered around 20–22 °C—slightly below the month’s climatological average of roughly 23–24 °C—explaining why those three outcomes dominate market-implied odds. Key differentiating variables include the exact timing and intensity of precipitation, which can suppress maxima by several degrees through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation, versus any brief clearing that would allow stronger surface warming. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these details ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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