PAGASA's latest extended outlook for Metro Manila on July 8 projects daytime highs of 32–33 °C with 40–60 % rain chance under the southwest monsoon, while longer-range guidance from AccuWeather and ECMWF-based models shows a narrow envelope centered near 32–34 °C. In Manila’s July climatology, peak temperatures are set by the balance between morning insolation and afternoon convective clouds or showers that cap surface heating; modest differences in timing or coverage of these storms readily shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Recent sea-surface temperatures and lower-tropospheric moisture favor typical wet-season suppression, keeping extreme values above 35 °C or below 31 °C statistically unlikely. Updated PAGASA and NCEP model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the precise maximum and therefore the market-implied probabilities clustered around 32–34 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on July 8?
Highest temperature in Manila on July 8?
33°C 32%
34°C 19%
32°C 15%
35°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 8, 2026
28°C or below
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
6%
31°C
8%
32°C
15%
33°C
32%
34°C
19%
35°C
9%
36°C
4%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 32%
34°C 19%
32°C 15%
35°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Jul 8, 2026
28°C or below
$165 Vol.
1%
29°C
$58 Vol.
1%
30°C
$19 Vol.
6%
31°C
$0 Vol.
8%
32°C
$0 Vol.
15%
33°C
$0 Vol.
32%
34°C
$0 Vol.
19%
35°C
$0 Vol.
9%
36°C
$24 Vol.
4%
37°C
$46 Vol.
1%
38°C or higher
$332 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA's latest extended outlook for Metro Manila on July 8 projects daytime highs of 32–33 °C with 40–60 % rain chance under the southwest monsoon, while longer-range guidance from AccuWeather and ECMWF-based models shows a narrow envelope centered near 32–34 °C. In Manila’s July climatology, peak temperatures are set by the balance between morning insolation and afternoon convective clouds or showers that cap surface heating; modest differences in timing or coverage of these storms readily shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Recent sea-surface temperatures and lower-tropospheric moisture favor typical wet-season suppression, keeping extreme values above 35 °C or below 31 °C statistically unlikely. Updated PAGASA and NCEP model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the precise maximum and therefore the market-implied probabilities clustered around 32–34 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volume
$643End Date
Jul 8, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA's latest extended outlook for Metro Manila on July 8 projects daytime highs of 32–33 °C with 40–60 % rain chance under the southwest monsoon, while longer-range guidance from AccuWeather and ECMWF-based models shows a narrow envelope centered near 32–34 °C. In Manila’s July climatology, peak temperatures are set by the balance between morning insolation and afternoon convective clouds or showers that cap surface heating; modest differences in timing or coverage of these storms readily shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Recent sea-surface temperatures and lower-tropospheric moisture favor typical wet-season suppression, keeping extreme values above 35 °C or below 31 °C statistically unlikely. Updated PAGASA and NCEP model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the precise maximum and therefore the market-implied probabilities clustered around 32–34 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$643End Date
Jul 8, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...PAGASA's latest extended outlook for Metro Manila on July 8 projects daytime highs of 32–33 °C with 40–60 % rain chance under the southwest monsoon, while longer-range guidance from AccuWeather and ECMWF-based models shows a narrow envelope centered near 32–34 °C. In Manila’s July climatology, peak temperatures are set by the balance between morning insolation and afternoon convective clouds or showers that cap surface heating; modest differences in timing or coverage of these storms readily shift the daily maximum by 1–2 °C. Recent sea-surface temperatures and lower-tropospheric moisture favor typical wet-season suppression, keeping extreme values above 35 °C or below 31 °C statistically unlikely. Updated PAGASA and NCEP model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the precise maximum and therefore the market-implied probabilities clustered around 32–34 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions