Recent Met Office guidance points to an 18°C overnight minimum for London on July 6 amid building high pressure and a warming trend, with daytime highs reaching 32°C under sunny spells. This aligns with the market's leading 47% implied probability for exactly 18°C, as models show limited cooling overnight due to urban heat retention and light winds. Historical July lows average 13–15°C, but current conditions—driven by subtropical air advection—favor values near 18°C over cooler outcomes like 15°C (34%). Minor model spread around 16–20°C keeps those probabilities clustered near 33–34%, while extremes remain discounted absent major forecast shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on July 6?
Lowest temperature in London on July 6?
18°C 47%
17°C 26%
19°C 21%
16°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Jul 6, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
4%
16°C
11%
17°C
24%
18°C
47%
19°C
21%
20°C
5%
21°C
5%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
<1%
18°C 47%
17°C 26%
19°C 21%
16°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Jul 6, 2026
14°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
15°C
$8 Vol.
4%
16°C
$21 Vol.
11%
17°C
$12 Vol.
24%
18°C
$5 Vol.
47%
19°C
$0 Vol.
21%
20°C
$0 Vol.
5%
21°C
$0 Vol.
5%
22°C
$5 Vol.
1%
23°C
$27 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$22 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance points to an 18°C overnight minimum for London on July 6 amid building high pressure and a warming trend, with daytime highs reaching 32°C under sunny spells. This aligns with the market's leading 47% implied probability for exactly 18°C, as models show limited cooling overnight due to urban heat retention and light winds. Historical July lows average 13–15°C, but current conditions—driven by subtropical air advection—favor values near 18°C over cooler outcomes like 15°C (34%). Minor model spread around 16–20°C keeps those probabilities clustered near 33–34%, while extremes remain discounted absent major forecast shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$104End Date
Jul 6, 2026Market Opened
Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance points to an 18°C overnight minimum for London on July 6 amid building high pressure and a warming trend, with daytime highs reaching 32°C under sunny spells. This aligns with the market's leading 47% implied probability for exactly 18°C, as models show limited cooling overnight due to urban heat retention and light winds. Historical July lows average 13–15°C, but current conditions—driven by subtropical air advection—favor values near 18°C over cooler outcomes like 15°C (34%). Minor model spread around 16–20°C keeps those probabilities clustered near 33–34%, while extremes remain discounted absent major forecast shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$104End Date
Jul 6, 2026Market Opened
Jul 4, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office guidance points to an 18°C overnight minimum for London on July 6 amid building high pressure and a warming trend, with daytime highs reaching 32°C under sunny spells. This aligns with the market's leading 47% implied probability for exactly 18°C, as models show limited cooling overnight due to urban heat retention and light winds. Historical July lows average 13–15°C, but current conditions—driven by subtropical air advection—favor values near 18°C over cooler outcomes like 15°C (34%). Minor model spread around 16–20°C keeps those probabilities clustered near 33–34%, while extremes remain discounted absent major forecast shifts before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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