Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Paris's lowest temperature on May 14, with equal implied probabilities across 6–11°C outcomes driven by divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing a spread from 6°C to 11°C. Recent Météo-France and BBC guidance points to thundery showers and westerly winds around 15 km/h, introducing variability in overnight cloud cover—clear skies promote radiative cooling for lower minima near 6–7°C, while persistent clouds trap heat, favoring 9–11°C. Cool upper-level troughs have advected colder air over Île-de-France in the past 48 hours, below the mid-May climatological low of ~9.5°C. New model runs expected daily through May 13 will clarify boundary layer stability and precipitation timing ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on May 14?
Lowest temperature in Paris on May 14?
7°C 37%
8°C 26%
6°C 16%
5°C 4.1%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
1°C or below
<1%
2°C
<1%
3°C
<1%
4°C
1%
5°C
4%
6°C
16%
7°C
29%
8°C
27%
9°C
2%
10°C
1%
11°C or higher
<1%
7°C 37%
8°C 26%
6°C 16%
5°C 4.1%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
1°C or below
$230 Vol.
<1%
2°C
$281 Vol.
<1%
3°C
$100 Vol.
<1%
4°C
$272 Vol.
1%
5°C
$310 Vol.
4%
6°C
$158 Vol.
16%
7°C
$89 Vol.
29%
8°C
$27 Vol.
27%
9°C
$190 Vol.
2%
10°C
$312 Vol.
1%
11°C or higher
$4,574 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Paris's lowest temperature on May 14, with equal implied probabilities across 6–11°C outcomes driven by divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing a spread from 6°C to 11°C. Recent Météo-France and BBC guidance points to thundery showers and westerly winds around 15 km/h, introducing variability in overnight cloud cover—clear skies promote radiative cooling for lower minima near 6–7°C, while persistent clouds trap heat, favoring 9–11°C. Cool upper-level troughs have advected colder air over Île-de-France in the past 48 hours, below the mid-May climatological low of ~9.5°C. New model runs expected daily through May 13 will clarify boundary layer stability and precipitation timing ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$6,294End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Paris's lowest temperature on May 14, with equal implied probabilities across 6–11°C outcomes driven by divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing a spread from 6°C to 11°C. Recent Météo-France and BBC guidance points to thundery showers and westerly winds around 15 km/h, introducing variability in overnight cloud cover—clear skies promote radiative cooling for lower minima near 6–7°C, while persistent clouds trap heat, favoring 9–11°C. Cool upper-level troughs have advected colder air over Île-de-France in the past 48 hours, below the mid-May climatological low of ~9.5°C. New model runs expected daily through May 13 will clarify boundary layer stability and precipitation timing ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6,294End Date
May 14, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty in Paris's lowest temperature on May 14, with equal implied probabilities across 6–11°C outcomes driven by divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing a spread from 6°C to 11°C. Recent Météo-France and BBC guidance points to thundery showers and westerly winds around 15 km/h, introducing variability in overnight cloud cover—clear skies promote radiative cooling for lower minima near 6–7°C, while persistent clouds trap heat, favoring 9–11°C. Cool upper-level troughs have advected colder air over Île-de-France in the past 48 hours, below the mid-May climatological low of ~9.5°C. New model runs expected daily through May 13 will clarify boundary layer stability and precipitation timing ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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